Entering the third day of 2026, Bitcoin is performing strongly. The latest BTC price hovers around $90,100, with a daily high of $90,223, successfully breaking above the $90k psychological threshold, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.7%. The gradual return of liquidity at the start of the new year, combined with continuous institutional buying, has driven this rebound. However, it is still about 28% below the all-time high, and the potential for further upward movement remains to be unlocked.

From a technical perspective, the most noteworthy aspect is the extreme compression of Bollinger Bands. Currently, the compression is less than $3,500, reaching the lowest level in recent years. Historical experience shows that such extreme compression often signals an imminent large move of over 20%. Short-term support is at $87,500, with resistance at $92,000. If Bitcoin can sustain above $90k, a direct surge to $95,000+ is not out of the question.

Market sentiment is also gradually recovering. The Fear & Greed Index today reads approximately 30-34 (fear zone), a significant rebound from previous days, indicating that extreme fear has subsided. This shift in sentiment often presents buying opportunities.

ETF activity is another highlight. On the first trading day of the year, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached nearly $471M, mainly led by large asset managers like BlackRock, breaking the continuous outflow trend at the end of last year. Industry estimates suggest that ETF net inflows in 2026 could accelerate to over $20 billion, which is highly supportive of the price.

In terms of institutional holdings, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) added 1,229 BTC at the end of the year, with an average price of $88,568, bringing the total holdings to over 672,497 BTC. The company's "All in" strategy remains unchanged, continuing to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Looking ahead to 2026, many research institutions are optimistic. Grayscale predicts a potential new high in the first half of the year; firms like Bitwise and JPMorgan are bullish on a scenario driven by ample liquidity, favorable regulation, and ETF demand, with median target prices ranging from $150,000 to $170,000, and even optimistic scenarios reaching over $200,000.

It is worth noting that BTC dominance has fallen below 60%, while mainstream altcoins like ETH, SOL, and ADA have generally risen by 4%-9%. The market is awaiting the latest Federal Reserve policy signals and further liquidity return.

Overall, the low-liquidity bottoming process at the start of the new year may have already ended. The stabilization above $90k, the expected breakout of Bollinger Bands compression, continuous ETF net inflows, and the recovery of the fear index all signal that the "fearful others, greedy me" window is opening. Historically, the first year after the 2025 halving often marks the beginning of a major bull run. Driven by both liquidity and institutional participation, a structural bull market in 2026 is worth looking forward to.