Looking at the opportunity with RIVER, we need to start from the change in funding rates. During that period, the rate plummeted to an extreme of -2, and the whales forcibly pushed the price up to squeeze out the shorts. The shorts were having an extremely tough time—they not only had to withstand upward price pressure but also had to pay the funding costs, pushing the overall cost to an absurd level. This is a classic negative funding rate short squeeze tactic, aimed at forcing retail traders to hold losing positions and sell off.

Now the situation has reversed. The funding rate has officially turned positive, which means longs are now paying shorts, and the perpetual contract’s balancing mechanism is starting to penalize overly long positions.

The technical analysis also confirms this turning point. On the daily chart, there was a high-level rally followed by a pullback. The four-hour cycle formed a double top that has already broken down, the moving averages have turned into a bearish alignment, and after the MACD death cross, the green bars continue to expand, indicating a complete downward trend. Large traders’ short positions are quietly increasing, and active sell orders are frequently hitting significant resistance levels. It’s clear that the whales previously completed a distribution through a short squeeze and are now starting to hit the market from the other side.

Currently, around 13.2 is a good entry point for shorting. Setting a stop-loss above 14.0 is more prudent—this was a previous rebound level, and if it breaks, it indicates the trend is taking a pause. The initial target is around 12.0; if that level also breaks, then look further down to the 10.0 zone.

With the trend reversal and the funding rate advantage, combined with these dual factors, the timing for shorting has indeed arrived.