Ethereum is oscillating around $3,150, which essentially reflects the market's re-pricing of its long-term fundamentals.

From a technical upgrade perspective, the Glamsterdam upgrade scheduled for 2026 will directly address the MEV fairness issue, while the Hegela upgrade significantly reduces node deployment and maintenance costs through the application of Verkle trees. These improvements are not just on paper but can effectively enhance network capacity and operational efficiency. Coupled with the on-chain transfer fee advantages brought by L2 scaling solutions (which have a clear cost advantage over competing chains), Ethereum is attracting more and more Web2-based enterprises to deploy applications within its ecosystem.

The policy and environmental shift is also crucial. After the release of signals favoring Trump’s policies, regulatory expectations for the crypto market have noticeably improved. Additionally, the advancement of ETF institutionalization processes has accumulated positive policy feedback for Ethereum. However, one should be cautious—"buy the rumor, sell the fact" has repeatedly played out in history. When good news actually materializes, it often results in short-term corrections.

Looking at cycle patterns, Ethereum often lags behind Bitcoin at the start of a bull market, but once an independent rally begins, it can be highly explosive. Historical data supports this, such as during the 2018 cycle, when the ETH/BTC exchange rate soared from 0.01 to 0.05. The current rate of 0.058 is approaching the weekly EMA200 support line. If a rebound occurs here, it could trigger a stronger independent upward trend for Ethereum.

For specific trading strategies, it is recommended to set multiple alerts to dynamically adjust positions: a breakout above $3,150 can be followed with a chase, while a drop below $2,850 should trigger stop-loss orders. Additionally, closely monitor the movements of large wallet addresses. For patient long-term holders, signals such as the convergence of L2 ecosystems (e.g., OP Stack interoperability solutions) and increased on-chain activity (recent 7-day active addresses grew by 8%) indicate ongoing deployment opportunities. Short-term traders should pay attention to the Bank of Japan’s policy moves and their potential impact on cross-market capital flows.