2026-01-04 00:23:34

A major asset management institution recently released the "2026 Crypto Market Outlook," which presents an interesting perspective: short-term traders should be cautious, but long-term holders may still have time to enter.

The head of digital asset research at the institution pointed out a core logic — from a game theory perspective, more countries will consider adding Bitcoin to their foreign exchange reserves in the future. Once a country takes this step, others will face peer pressure to follow suit, as no one wants to fall behind in this competition. From the basic supply and demand relationship, as long as new large buyers enter the market, the probability of price increases will grow.

Of course, the devil is in the details. What truly determines the price trend is how significant the new demand is, and whether existing investors are steadfastly holding or gradually selling off. The increase in enterprise-level purchases of crypto assets over the past two years has indeed boosted market demand, but risks are also present — if these companies are forced or choose to reduce their holdings during a bear market, it could lead to a market dump.

Regarding the classic four-year cycle, the analyst believes it has not completely disappeared. As long as fear and greed alternate in the market, the cycle persists. The current decline could be the start of a new bear market, or it could simply be a correction within a bull market. Which one it is may only become clear in the second half of 2026.

The most interesting view is: the crypto market has entered a new era. Traditional large-scale fund managers and institutional investors are gradually buying Bitcoin and other digital assets, and the scale of funds they can bring to this market might just be the tip of the iceberg. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with new tiers of investors constantly entering.

BTC-0,62%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

NotFinancialAdvice

· 01-07 00:07

Once the national reserve purchase of BTC starts, it will indeed be a domino effect—whoever acts first wins. Enterprise-level buyers are really entering the market, but it also depends on when they run away—that's the key. The four-year cycle is still alive; fear and greed are always cyclical. Let's wait until the second half of 2026 to see the outcome. The question now is not whether it's late to enter, but whether you can endure the possible bear market without selling. Institutional groups are rushing in, but this is just the tip of the iceberg—calling it optimistic might be a bit much; the risks are also just the tip of the iceberg. Long-term holders profit from this logic, while short-term players profit from their opponents' losses. Choosing which path to take is crucial. Reducing holdings and crashing the market has happened many times before, and it will happen again. Being psychologically prepared is the most important.

View OriginalReply0

ChainBrain

· 01-06 10:45

The FOMO pressure at the national level is indeed intense. Who dares to bet that their country won't follow the trend? The part where institutions dump is the real devil. Don't just look at the demand side; if the supply side collapses, the whole story changes. This four-year cycle... is it truly a cycle or just our collective illusion? Let's see the real outcome in the second half of the year. The saying that this is just the tip of the iceberg is a bit harsh. Let's wait and see; don't get caught too deep.

View OriginalReply0

MetaMisfit

· 01-05 00:18

Still talking about the national reserve Bitcoin again, I've been hearing this for almost two years, give it a rest. Long-term holding sounds good, but when the bear market hits, who will save you from liquidation? Four-year cycle? Not happening, this time is different, it's all nonsense. Wait, do institutions really act so foolishly by actively reducing holdings and crashing their own markets? Short-term traders, beware? Bro, are you talking about me? I believe the tip of the iceberg theory, but only if nothing like 2023 happens again. It's already 2026, still waiting to see clearly in the second half of the year? You should act now. Another era, new opportunities, every year they say this, so why is the price still falling? Institutional buying ≠ guaranteed rise, supply and demand imbalance can still lead to failure. This set of logic has big flaws, but I still have to hodl, right?

View OriginalReply0

0xDreamChaser

· 01-04 00:53

Sounds good, but aren't all the current entrants just bagholders? Let's wait for institutions to dump. --- Game theory sounds great, but when it actually crashes, no one can save you. --- Is this just the tip of the iceberg? I think it's the top of the iceberg, haha. --- The four-year cycle is still here? Then why does everyone say the cycle is coming every year? --- Institutional buying sounds impressive, but when the bear market comes, they'll still run away. Don't fool yourself. --- We won't see clearly until the second half of 2026? I can see very clearly now; the risks are huge. --- The pressure to follow the trend, it sounds like institutions are brainwashing themselves. --- Long-term holding might still be possible, but the key is how long your long-term can support you. --- A new era, a new era, they said the same during the last bull market. --- The supply and demand relationship is correct, but who knows if a black swan will suddenly appear.

View OriginalReply0

RadioShackKnight

· 01-04 00:52

A national-level buy-in is the real game changer; retail investors' money isn't enough to make a difference. Companies dumping shares is something we must be cautious of; otherwise, you'll get caught by institutions and still be dreaming. I believe in the four-year cycle theory; after all, human nature remains unchanged—greed and fear are always cycling. We'll see the true picture in the second half of 2026; it's still a bit early to say anything now. The iceberg analogy is perfect; the real big funds are just starting to test the waters.

View OriginalReply0

MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 01-04 00:37

I believe in the logic of countries bottoming out Bitcoin, but the risk of companies reducing holdings and causing a sell-off seems to have never been truly discussed. Speaking of the four-year cycle, it feels like every time it can be self-justified, and we won't see the true picture until the second half of 2026... So what should I buy now? The continuous influx of institutional investors is indeed a new variable, but hearing the phrase "tip of the iceberg" so often has become a bit numb. Wait, if countries really start a military competition-style race to copy coins, will retail investors still have a chance? The idea that long-term holders are not late to enter sounds like they're telling me to increase my position... Uh, should I listen to that? No one can predict a bear market sell-off, anyway, it's just a gamble of mindset.

View OriginalReply0

NFT_Therapy

· 01-04 00:24

The national-level FOMO has begun, and this wave is truly different. The logic of long-term holding holds up, but I'm just worried about the moment when companies dump their holdings. The four-year cycle is still alive, but who can accurately hit the timing... I can't bet on it. The phrase "institutional entry is just the tip of the iceberg" still sounds a bit hollow.

View OriginalReply0