There has been quite a bit of discussion in the past couple of days about whether Ethereum can break through 3200. Some are eager to chase the long side, some are heavily betting on a doubling rally, and there are even voices saying "3200 is just the starting point, the real target is 4000." As a veteran who has been navigating the crypto market for 8 years, witnessing the madness of 2017 and the winter of 2022, I will openly share my most honest opinion: for Ethereum to effectively break through the 3200 threshold, the difficulty is much greater than it seems.

My judgment is based on analysis from two dimensions. From a technical perspective, 3200 is not simply a resistance level. A deeper look at the moving average system reveals this—MA60 and MA120, two key moving averages, are completely stacked within the 3180 to 3200 range, forming a double pressure zone. Short-term funds need substantial trading volume to break through. But what do the recent three days' candlesticks show? Yesterday's rally was good, but the trading volume shrank by 20% compared to the previous day. What does this indicate? It shows that this upward move lacks sustained incremental funds and is merely a technical rebound.

Looking at the story of chip distribution, the price range from 3150 to 3200 was formed as a dense cost zone from November to December last year. A large amount of early chasing funds are trapped in this area. This zone is like a "portrait of all beings," hiding many passive long positions, and the potential selling pressure is enough to consume a lot of the breakthrough momentum. Market psychology is also worth pondering—when the price approaches these trapped zones, the trapped funds often close their positions at the stop-loss points. This selling pressure tends to become particularly obvious just before a breakout.