Currently, many are pondering the market rhythm for the next two years. From a historical cycle perspective, Bitcoin's halving occurs roughly every four years, and this logic is almost ingrained in the DNA of the crypto world.
Based on past experience, the six-month pre-halving period is usually a buildup phase, with the real explosion typically happening one to two years after the halving. 2026 happens to be within this window—macroeconomic liquidity, policy expectations, institutional participation, and several other variables could be re-priced.
From a token allocation perspective, mainstream holdings (such as large-cap coins) usually respond first, while secondary tokens with actual application scenarios often generate excess returns in the mid-cycle. This is also why some are now starting to focus on the fundamentals of specific projects.
Of course, all these are just extrapolations based on historical patterns. The market's ultimate direction depends on factors like liquidity, regulatory attitudes, technological iterations, and more. But preparing in advance is never a mistake.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
19 Likes
Reward
19
10
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
OvertimeSquid
· 01-06 18:26
The halving logic is well written, but to be honest, it feels a bit late to go all-in on major market coins now... I still prefer those layer-two projects with real applications; the middle of the cycle is where the true gains are.
View OriginalReply0
ThesisInvestor
· 01-06 17:28
Wait, is the halving cycle theory really accurate every time? It feels like there are way more variables this time than before.
View OriginalReply0
MainnetDelayedAgain
· 01-04 02:55
It has been 24 hours since the last argument of "2026 must rise." According to the database, this set of logic has been referenced approximately n times in the crypto community... Historical cycles are indeed embedded in the genes, but I wonder if this time it will also be delayed like previous promises, waiting quietly for the flowers to bloom.
View OriginalReply0
Anon32942
· 01-04 02:00
2026 is indeed a point of contention. The window period is right in front after the halving, but those entering now are betting on how crazy liquidity will get... To be honest, no one can really say for sure.
View OriginalReply0
MevHunter
· 01-04 01:59
I've heard the term "halving cycle" so many times, but is 2026 really guaranteed to be the breakout period? It feels like everyone is betting on this story.
View OriginalReply0
OnchainDetective
· 01-04 01:59
This logic has indeed gone through several cycle tests, but the variables in each market cycle keep changing... Now the institutional entry pace is completely different.
Layer 2 tokens are now so popular; it feels like they are almost being pumped into main market coins.
We still have to wait until 2026, but this current position is a bit awkward.
The real breakout period is simple to say, but if you miss the timing, losing money is a small matter.
Liquidity this year has indeed become more unpredictable, and regulators also can't see through it clearly.
View OriginalReply0
consensus_failure
· 01-04 01:51
2026, another four-year cycle... But to be honest, the historical pattern isn't 100% reliable in the crypto world either, so risks still need to be considered.
View OriginalReply0
digital_archaeologist
· 01-04 01:43
Well, I've heard the halving cycle explanation too many times, but 2026 is indeed a tricky spot.
It's been known for a while that mainstream coins will move first; the key is whether layer-2 tokens can really break out this time, depending on whether their fundamentals are solid.
View OriginalReply0
HodlTheDoor
· 01-04 01:34
The halving cycle has been talked about many times, but every time some people make money while others lose. Relying solely on choosing coins in that moment is really not enough; fundamentals are easy to talk about but hard to implement.
#2026年比特币行情展望 Bitcoin halving cycle begins, strategic positioning for 2026$BNB $PEPE
Currently, many are pondering the market rhythm for the next two years. From a historical cycle perspective, Bitcoin's halving occurs roughly every four years, and this logic is almost ingrained in the DNA of the crypto world.
Based on past experience, the six-month pre-halving period is usually a buildup phase, with the real explosion typically happening one to two years after the halving. 2026 happens to be within this window—macroeconomic liquidity, policy expectations, institutional participation, and several other variables could be re-priced.
From a token allocation perspective, mainstream holdings (such as large-cap coins) usually respond first, while secondary tokens with actual application scenarios often generate excess returns in the mid-cycle. This is also why some are now starting to focus on the fundamentals of specific projects.
Of course, all these are just extrapolations based on historical patterns. The market's ultimate direction depends on factors like liquidity, regulatory attitudes, technological iterations, and more. But preparing in advance is never a mistake.