Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent statements have attracted considerable attention in the market. During the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, she candidly stated that the Fed is still digesting the effects of last year's large-scale easing policies and is not in a hurry to cut interest rates further.

Her logic is clear: if inflation continues to ease this year, the labor market remains stable, and economic growth stays around 2%, then perhaps a modest adjustment to the federal funds rate could be considered by the end of the year. But this is conditional—everything must proceed according to good expectations. As for 2026? Powell hinted that there might be a moderate rate cut, but again, it depends on whether the economic situation continues to cooperate.

In other words, whether to cut rates or not entirely depends on whether economic data behaves as expected. As a voting member of the FOMC, her remarks essentially reflect the Fed's cautious stance—wait and see, no need to act hastily. For investors concerned with global liquidity and asset allocation, this means the second half of the year will be the real observation window.