Recently, a fascinating phenomenon was discovered on Polymarket—a single address made a big bet on Venezuela situation predictions, earning over $400,000 in a single transaction.

Careful examination of this operation reveals several details worth pondering. First, this is a new account, created only in December 2025, with no prior transaction history, appearing out of nowhere. Such "ghost accounts" are common in prediction markets, but it's rare to see one make such a large move right from the start.

The performance report is even more impressive—monthly profit of $409,979 with a trading volume of $469,163. A key transaction saw the position jump from $32,537 to $436,760, betting that Maduro would step down in January. This is a typical "all-in" gambler mentality—either making a big profit or losing everything.

What could be behind this? It might be someone with early access to certain information, or perhaps betting on the uncertainty of the political situation. Prediction markets often reflect strong judgments through large inflows and outflows of funds. However, this pattern of quickly cashing out from a new account also reminds one of some arbitrage strategies involving information.