January 4th, looking at the candlestick chart, the market is playing the same old game again.

The WeChat group is lively. Within three or five minutes, several old friends throw similar questions: "ETH has stabilized above 3100, can it surge to 3500 next? Is it still a good time to enter now?"

On the other side of the screen, you can feel the urgency.

This is when the most discipline is tested. It’s not that it can’t go up, but you need to understand the quality of the rise.

Open the chart and look from the larger timeframe downward. The 4-hour level is indeed beautiful — climbing from the bottom, oscillating upward all the way, with moving averages arranged very neatly, a bullish pattern vividly displayed. No wonder there are shouting calls everywhere in the square.

But the truth is often hidden in the details. Switch to the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, and the problem becomes clear.

The price hit a high of 3165.99, then seemed to get stuck. It looks like there’s no significant pullback, but it just can’t break through. The key is that on the 15-minute level, the MACD shows the red bars are shrinking, even showing signs of divergence.

What does this mean? The bulls couldn’t push through in one go. It’s like climbing — reaching 3165 has exhausted their strength, and they need to stop and rest, replenish their energy. At this point, if you follow the trend and enter the market, it’s essentially taking the last shot.

Technical weakness doesn’t lie. Blindly going all-in, the last ones to buy are often retail investors.