The market has indeed been indecisive recently. Bitcoin repeatedly tests the $90,000 level, and Ethereum has also regained the $3000 mark, but the story behind these movements is much more complex than the K-line suggests.

**Where is the money flowing**

Data from the US spot crypto ETF clearly indicates the trend—cumulative trading volume has surpassed $2 trillion. Last year, Bitcoin alone attracted over $1.2 trillion in fiat inflows, a scale that retail investors alone cannot sustain. However, in the past 24 hours, another 110,000 traders have been liquidated, indicating increased market volatility.

**What are the bulls and bears arguing about**

Bullish institutions are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching new highs by 2026, citing factors like potential Fed rate cuts and Trump policy stimuli. But Standard Chartered Bank has dampened expectations, slashing the 2026 target price from $300,000 to $150,000, a significant difference.

The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.19%, which from an economic sentiment perspective remains relatively optimistic. However, this also means borrowing costs are rising, which is not entirely positive for risk assets.

**The Fed's hesitation**

There is considerable disagreement within the Federal Reserve about the timing of rate cuts. Some officials believe they should wait and see a bit longer, with rate cuts possibly not happening until the end of 2026. Others worry that the labor market may weaken, and if unemployment rises to 6%, they will need to act more aggressively. The market generally expects rate cuts to be phased between March and September, but this is just an expectation.

**Geopolitical tensions haven't caused disruption**

Recently, the US has taken military actions in Venezuela, but Bitcoin has not experienced panic selling—in fact, it has shown some safe-haven properties. This also indicates that institutions have already incorporated crypto assets into their regular portfolios, no longer viewing them solely as speculative instruments.

**What to watch next week**

The US will soon release December's ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data, along with the highly anticipated December non-farm payrolls. These indicators are crucial for the Fed's January meeting and will directly influence the short-term direction of the crypto market. In other words, next week's macroeconomic data may provide an answer to the recent volatility.