On-Chain Data Shows Two Key Signals, Slightly Bullish

Recent on-chain data presents two highly noteworthy signals, with the conclusion leaning towards: a rebound is underway, rather than a mere false breakout.
1. Chip Concentration Begins to Decrease (Important)
On 2026.1.1, the chip concentration within ±5% of #BTC spot price once rose to 14.9%, which is very close to our defined high volatility risk zone.
But the critical change occurred afterward:

January 2 and January 3

Concentration did not increase but decreased

Currently has fallen back to 14.5%

At the same time, BTC price is gradually rising

⚠️ It is important to emphasize:
Chip concentration does not determine direction, only influences volatility.
However, historical data reveals a very stable “implicit rule”:
When concentration rises due to price increase and then “turns downward,”
During the phase of continuous decline in concentration, prices tend to continue their original trend.
In other words:
👉 This decline is more like “chip dispersion during an uptrend,” rather than a sign of top.
2. Support from Chip Structure Still Valid
From URPD data:

Around $87,000

A total of 822,000 BTC have accumulated

This is currently the most significant large-volume chip pillar

This is also the position with the most intense bullish-bearish divergence.
The key signal observed now is:
👉 The turnover range is starting to shift to the right (higher prices)
What does this mean?

As the largest pillar on URPD,

The structural support at $87,000 remains effective

The market is attempting to raise the new cost range

Based on the current structure, I personally believe:
$92,000 – $104,000
is a reasonable and healthy rebound activity zone.
3. Technical Signals Confirmed
Combining the technical conditions mentioned yesterday:

Daily closing price above the downward trendline

Key level: $90,588

👉 This condition has already been met

Technically, this is usually seen as:
A “formal establishment of rebound expectation” signal.
4. Discussion on “False Breakouts”
Indeed, some friends have asked:
Could it be a false breakout?
The answer is:
Cannot be ruled out, but the probability is low.
From the current comprehensive view:

Chip concentration: Slightly bullish

URPD structure: Support remains effective

Technical aspect: Trendline has been recovered

👉 The probability of a genuine rebound is higher than that of a continued decline after a false breakout.
5. When to Switch to Caution Completely?
Only if the following conditions occur simultaneously, will I reassess:

BTC effectively breaks below $87,000

Price re-enters below the downward trendline

Chip concentration continues to rise again

Until then, this round is more like:
a correction and continuation within the trend, rather than the end of a rebound.
In summary:
Data is speaking — currently, BTC looks more like it is “rebounding,” rather than “faking a rebound.”