2026-01-04 06:25:49

Recently, many friends have been discussing the future trend of Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, according to wave theory logic, BTC is highly likely to surge to the $100,000 mark before the end of January 2026.

Let's first look at what the candlestick chart indicates. From November 21 to December 10, this period represents the first wave of upward movement. Then, from December 10 to 19, there was a correction, which is the second wave. Starting from December 19, the third wave began, and the current market is still operating within this wave. According to this rhythm, the third wave is expected to reach $100,000. Afterwards, a sideways consolidation in a fourth wave may occur below $100,000. Once the price breaks through $100,000, it will enter the fifth wave. Experienced traders can start considering shorting opportunities as the fifth wave forms.

Looking at the capital aspect, it becomes even more interesting. Every year at the beginning of the year, large institutional investors like pension funds and insurance companies will allocate new funds into the stock market. Some of this money will flow into Bitcoin spot ETFs, which is a traditional pattern. Also, don’t forget that before the end of the year, American investors often sell losing positions to reduce taxes and hedge other gains. As a result, many people sell off their losing BTC-related holdings. However, at the start of the new year, these forced sellers are very likely to re-enter the market.

Another major expectation is that the Federal Reserve plans to continue cutting interest rates in 2026 and may even initiate a new round of quantitative easing. Once this expectation forms, large capital will definitely start positioning early and buy in advance. These factors combined support an optimistic outlook for the market.

However, to truly break through the historical high of $126,200, the difficulty remains significant. When reaching that level, there will inevitably be greater selling pressure and strategic battles.

BTC-0,56%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

RugPullSurvivor

· 01-07 03:16

The Elliott Wave Theory... sounds very reasonable, but I still think that institutional bottom-fishing is the key; retail investors following the trend are easily cut. --- $100,000? Let's wait and see if the Federal Reserve will really cooperate this way. --- I agree with the logic of funds entering at the beginning of the year, but whether we can successfully break through the historical high still depends on the battle—this is the real test. --- Tax-saving sell-offs followed by a comeback in the New Year—this routine has been played for many years, but the effect varies each year, so don’t believe it completely. --- Honestly, chasing $100,000 now makes me a bit anxious; I’m more worried about another shock dropping to $60,000. --- The fourth wave of sideways consolidation... I’ve experienced too many deceptive K-line moments before; volume is the real boss, everyone.

View OriginalReply0

MondayYoloFridayCry

· 01-04 09:15

The wave theory... to be honest, I've heard it too many times. Every time they say it will break new highs, but what happens? It still depends on the funding situation. I need to keep a close eye on the institutional bottom-fishing wave at the beginning of the year.

View OriginalReply0

alpha_leaker

· 01-04 06:55

Wave theory sounds impressive, but when it comes to critical points, it's really a psychological game. Whether 100,000 can be broken or not depends on how major institutions manipulate the market.

View OriginalReply0

LidoStakeAddict

· 01-04 06:55

The wave theory is back again, claiming that the third wave will hit 100,000 every time, but what happened... That said, the influx of institutional funds at the start of the new year is indeed interesting, and those ETF folks definitely tend to follow the trend.

View OriginalReply0

FloorPriceWatcher

· 01-04 06:53

Is the 100,000 level... really going to break through? I believe it, but I also don't fully trust it. The Federal Reserve rate cut expectations can indeed support the market, but the logic of institutions cutting losses and then coming back to sell off at the beginning of the year... sounds so familiar, they say this every year. I'm skeptical about the fifth wave of shorting; the real test is the battle at the historical high. The flow of money from pension funds into ETFs is real, but how much volume is needed to push it over 120,000? Currently, everyone entering the market is betting on the FED story. What if the story stops? Wave theory is just armchair analysis; when it actually happens, no one can rely on it. There might have been sideways movement before 100,000, but back then it was easier to get crushed, not necessarily a consolidation. The analysis of the capital flow is pretty good, but it underestimates the panic selling by retail investors. The optimistic view is the third wave; the less flattering view could be the rebound peak. Who can say for sure? The Federal Reserve's move is indeed a variable, but rate cuts do not necessarily mean a positive impact on the coin price; that logic is a bit rough.

View OriginalReply0

CoffeeNFTrader

· 01-04 06:52

Wave theory sounds good, but can you really catch the bottom and top in practice? I remain skeptical. --- I believe in the idea that institutional funds entered at the beginning of the year, but will those who cut losses really come back to kill? It sounds too idealistic. --- $100,000 sounds comfortable, but the real test is reaching $126,200. At that point, I don’t know what kind of game will be involved. --- The Fed's rate cut expectations can indeed push the market, but such expectations can also easily turn into air, so we need to watch out for reversals. --- Honestly, shorting in the fifth wave sounds tempting, but during pullbacks, it’s easy to get caught off guard. That’s the annoying part of wave theory. --- The process of tax saving and cutting losses happens every year, but how institutional attitudes will be this year is really hard to say. --- The technical analysis is well explained, but why are so many people able to see it? If it were that simple, it would be great.

View OriginalReply0

SillyWhale

· 01-04 06:41

The wave theory... Honestly, sometimes it's reliable, sometimes it's not. It all depends on market sentiment. The institution's plan to buy BTC spot ETFs at the beginning of the year is definitely worth paying attention to, but we still need to be cautious about the Federal Reserve. $100,000? Let's see if we can hold steady first; the all-time high is so hard to conquer. Tax saving, cutting losses, then jumping back in—this routine happens every year, but can it really go as planned? The expectation of quantitative easing is good, but I'm just worried it might be another "boots dropping" scenario.

View OriginalReply0