2026-01-04 06:26:03

Recently, I've been pondering an interesting market hypothesis...

If Bitcoin's current rebound truly kicks off, with the price bouncing back to the $100,000 to $107,000 range, followed by about two months of oscillation and rebound, what might happen?

The traditional broad rally season for altcoins might not occur, but from a different perspective—could around 10% of the top two hundred market cap altcoins outperform BTC significantly? This possibility is worth considering.

The recent surge of PEPE is a vivid example. Looking at projects like PUMP and ASTER, which have stable revenue streams and are in the hot sectors of this cycle, their eager movements indeed make one somewhat optimistic.

A look at historical cycles reveals a pattern: after Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, there's usually a sharp decline followed by a rebound—this window is precisely when altcoins are most prone to wild swings. This time might be no different.

However, the key prerequisite is crucial: we must see ETH/BTC establish a truly strong exchange rate. Without this condition, all the above fantasies are just that—fantasies.

BTC4,58%

PEPE14,38%

PUMP9,62%

ASTER6,43%

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WalletManager

· 01-06 11:55

This logic is quite interesting, but I think you overlooked a key variable—the on-chain data signaling. The strength of ETH/BTC sounds good, but it depends on the actual flow of funds from major wallets; otherwise, it's just armchair strategizing. The PEPE surge was indeed remarkable, but don't forget the risk factor... Currently, I'm quite cautious about PUMP and ASTER in my multi-signature wallet; I need to see real activity in cross-chain bridging before taking action.

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MEVvictim

· 01-05 17:50

Yao Coin's window period is indeed the best time for sniping; PEPE has already been verified.

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GameFiCritic

· 01-04 06:53

Hmm, this logical framework needs to be sorted out. If ETH/BTC stays unchanged, everything else is pointless. That makes sense.

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MerkleDreamer

· 01-04 06:53

The term "妖风乱舞" is used perfectly; history repeats itself this way. The key indicator ETH/BTC needs to break below.

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FrontRunFighter

· 01-04 06:52

ngl this eth/btc ratio thing is the real gatekeeper here... seen too many "altseason incoming" calls die at this exact checkpoint. the frontrunning bots already know where this goes before retail even sees the chart moving. pepe's pump was just noise in the dark forest while the real money was positioning elsewhere, fr fr.

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VitalikFanAccount