The global financial landscape in 2026 is brewing a major divergence. The 20-year zero interest rate era has come to an end, but this time it's not a synchronized move—Japan is tightening monetary policy and ending cheap funding, Europe is shifting towards the real economy, while China and the US are still releasing liquidity. This strange "half-tightening, half-easing" situation presents a rare opportunity window for retail investors.

To avoid pitfalls, the key is to understand two signals. First is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance in January—if expectations of further rate cuts are confirmed, global liquidity will stabilize, and the external environment for risk assets will improve directly. Second is whether the RMB can hold steady above the 7.0 threshold—this is not just an exchange rate issue, but also relates to when corporate foreign exchange settlement waves will start. Breaking through indicates an influx of capital into the market.

Once the signals are clear, how should one position? Two types of assets are most reliable. Industry leaders are the "safe haven"—as economic divergence intensifies, small and medium enterprises will be淘汰, and market share will concentrate among top companies. The profitability certainty of these firms is the strongest, and institutional funds will compete for them. High-dividend assets are the "ballast"—with stable cash flow and predictable dividends, they perfectly meet the conservative needs of corporate foreign exchange settlement funds, providing both downside protection and yield spread benefits.

Of course, risks cannot be ignored. The Federal Reserve may tighten again in the second half of the year due to inflation resurgence, domestic easing policies may slow down, and global inflation could further spread—these three swords could disrupt the outlook. But overall, there won't be a broad market trend in 2026; divergence will be the main theme. Blindly following the crowd is less wise than waiting for signals to confirm, and waiting for signals is less effective than choosing the right assets.