2026-01-04 08:26:02

Hong Kong Stocks' Gains and Losses Determine the Strength of A-Share Rebound

There is a pattern that everyone might have noticed——every time the A-shares market is closed for a holiday, the Hong Kong stocks generally rise sharply. When the A-shares reopen, if the Hong Kong market fails to continue its strength, the rebound of the A-shares is often limited. Conversely, if A-shares want a strong start next Monday, a sustained rebound in the Hong Kong market becomes a necessary condition, giving the A-shares the confidence and sustainability for a rebound.

Although this pattern plays out year after year, the details determine success or failure. Especially important is the opening level——if the main index doesn't open high at 4000 points, the opportunity is greater. Why? Because a high open already meets expectations and can easily trigger selling pressure. On the other hand, opening below 4000 points is more interesting, as there is an expectation of an upward breakout during the session, which can attract additional funds into the market.

**Financial + Tech Resonance, Chips Become Key Variable**

From the performance of Hong Kong stocks on Friday, we have reason to be optimistic about breaking through 4000 points next week. The rally on Friday was mainly driven by tech stocks such as chips and semiconductors, along with heavyweight blue chips in finance and insurance.

In comparison to A-shares, if the financial and tech sectors can resonate and rise together next Monday, breaking through 4000 points won't be difficult. Currently, it is quite certain that the rebound probability for chips and semiconductors is high, with SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) especially worth noting——the proportion of state funds holding Hong Kong stocks has doubled, indicating that market confidence in domestic chip replacement is indeed strong, which is a clear positive for the tech sector. Additionally, the recent strong performance of the first GPU stock after its listing has further injected new imagination into the chip sector.

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TokenomicsShaman

· 01-07 06:09

Hong Kong stocks are not performing well, and A-shares are also a lost cause. To put it simply, it depends on whether Hong Kong stocks can stabilize next week.

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potentially_notable

· 01-04 22:16

If the Hong Kong stocks don't rise above 4000 points, don't even think about it. I believe this logic; I said the same thing last year.

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SelfCustodyBro

· 01-04 08:55

Hong Kong stocks won't rebound, and no matter how much A-shares try to make up next week, it will be in vain. Long-time investors should be tired of this pattern by now. The chip sector indeed has imagination; doubling the position in SMIC is no joke. Opening 4000 points lower is even more attractive; opening higher makes it easier to crash the market. Interesting. The first GPU stock is really exciting this wave; the chip sector is picking up. It's normal if 4000 points can't be broken; anyway, if technology and finance resonate, the bottom is here.

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ChainDoctor

· 01-04 08:53

Can the Hong Kong stock market's recent rally hold? We'll find out on Monday. Don't open above 4,000 points; it might be more interesting if you don't.

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DeFiChef

· 01-04 08:48

Hong Kong stocks are underperforming, and A-shares are also a no-go. This tactic is indeed effective year after year. Whether the 4000-point level can be broken next week depends on Hong Kong stocks' performance. SMIC's recent move is interesting. The big funds doubled their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, indicating a strong confidence in chip replacement. Their counter-move to allocate to tech giants is definitely strategic. A lower open is actually better; a higher open is filled with selling pressure. I have to admit, I buy into this logic.

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