Recently, Bitcoin has been rallying all the way up to around 91,000. Many people are cheering, but I have to be honest — the pressure for a correction is building.

Let's first look at the inflow into the ETF; on the surface, it seems impressive, but there's some exaggeration. The funds allocated at the beginning of the year plus the technical rebound after tax selling—this kind of pulse-driven buying can’t last forever. Everyone knows that the 87,000-88,000 range has strong support, with whales hoarding over 820,000 BTC there, making it look almost unbreakable. But here’s the problem — the areas where market consensus is strongest are often the most vulnerable. Once this support is effectively broken, stop-loss orders will trigger one after another, leading to a waterfall decline driven by panic selling.

On the macro front, the outlook isn’t very optimistic either. Although global liquidity still looks decent, the uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies are offsetting optimistic expectations. If inflation remains stickier than expected, the easing expectations will fall short, and Bitcoin, as a "liquidity sponge," will be the first to be drained. The market structure remains fragile; while the Fear & Greed Index has rebounded somewhat from extreme fear, resilience has yet to fully recover.

My view remains unchanged: the final target of this correction depends on the 82,500 level. This isn’t a bearish call, just a logical deduction.