2026-01-04 09:26:01

A sudden event over the weekend stirred the financial markets—U.S. government direct intervention in Venezuela triggered a chain reaction instantly. Such geopolitical uncertainties have far-reaching impacts on commodity markets, especially on traditional safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil.

The gold market responded first. Previously, there were differing opinions on whether to adjust or continue the rally, but this event quickly shifted sentiment to bullish. Bulls finally have a clear reason to launch an attack, and market sentiment has noticeably warmed.

But the real big winner could be crude oil. In 2025, crude oil has struggled to maintain strength due to its commodity nature, but 2026 is expected to change that. As market focus shifts from pure fundamentals to geopolitical risks, the volatility range of crude oil will be redefined. Geopolitical events may become key variables driving crude oil, offering numerous trading opportunities throughout the year. If precious metals saw impressive gains last year, crude oil's performance next year may rival or even surpass them.

As for gold itself, without this weekend's unexpected twist, the upward outlook wouldn't be so clear.

On the operational level:

Silver experiences the most volatility; sharp rises and falls are its norm. The rebound after a sharp decline can easily mislead traders, but don’t mistake a pullback for an entry signal—it's often a good time to exit. From a technical perspective, short-term pullback pressure is significant, and it’s best to wait until a decline of at least 10% or more before considering a position.

Gold has already risen for five consecutive months on the monthly chart. The biggest risk in such continuous bullish candles is a reversal to a downtrend, and waiting for that reversal is the real opportunity for a second entry. After a strong rally, if there are no signs of further acceleration, the upside potential is actually limited.

Recently, gold is likely to undergo a correction and consolidation in January to accumulate momentum for the Spring Festival trading season.

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DefiPlaybook

· 01-07 09:17

Geopolitical turmoil stirs the risk-averse assets to dance along, and this script is as old as it gets. But on the other hand, crude oil does have a real chance to turn around this time. Compared to the passive rise of precious metals, the volatility driven by geopolitical risks is truly a great place to harvest gains. Silver's sharp rise and fall are indeed stimulating, but this stuff is like some high-yield liquidity mining; a rebound isn't necessarily an opportunity, often just a window to sell. It's more reliable to get out after a 10% drop. Gold, which has been rising for five months straight, now looks a bit like a false prosperity before a loss of momentum. Turning bearish is the real entry point. A January correction to build up momentum? Sounds like the protocol is preparing for the next round of incentives [dog head]. If crude oil truly performs on par with precious metals, this hedging characteristic might be more stable than holding coins to fight inflation.

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GasFeeCrier

· 01-07 02:06

Don't be reckless with this silver rebound, a quick bounce is just giving away points... Wait for a 10% drop before talking.

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ProxyCollector

· 01-06 18:55

Geopolitical tensions flare up again, and it's gold and crude oil taking turns to rise. Basically, it's just safe-haven sentiment being driven up. Silver is really a trap; it rebounds, and you want to jump in, but end up trapped. Still, wait for a big drop before considering. Five consecutive bullish days for gold are a bit risky; a turn to a downtrend by the end of the month might be the real buying opportunity. No rush. Will crude oil turn around in 2026? Let's hold off for now; geopolitical risks are unavoidable anyway. Before the Spring Festival, gold might need to adjust. Let's see then. Don't be fooled by the rebound.

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MEVHunter

· 01-06 12:08

The geopolitical arbitrage space has opened up... This time, crude oil is basically a free win. What does the redefinition of volatility mean? The price spread opportunities in the mempool, brother. I'm very familiar with the silver plunge and rebound pattern; it's just standard liquidity hunting. Wait until the retracement is in place before acting. The moment when gold turns from five consecutive bullish days to bearish is the real entry point for the secondary market. The current rally has no acceleration signals to support it.

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BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 01-04 09:56

Geopolitical tensions give the bulls an excuse every time. How many times has this routine been played out? Anyway, silver is most afraid of being misled. I won't take action during the rebound. --- Oil really has a chance to turn around this time. If it’s still weak in 2026, that would be ridiculous. Next year, we need to keep a close eye on geopolitical risks as a variable. --- Gold’s five-month rally followed by a turn to decline is the real entry point. If you go in now, won’t you get trapped and stuck? --- Wait, can the Venezuela issue really drive such a big market move? Feels like an over-interpretation. --- Silver’s wild swings are normal. I might as well bet on crypto market volatility, at least there’s some imagination space. --- Pre-Chinese New Year corrections in gold are a fixed rule. Around this time next year, it’s basically a dead end. --- If it weren’t for the weekend issue, gold should have already adjusted. Honestly, it just needs a reason.

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ChainWallflower

· 01-04 09:47

Geopolitical events stir up chaos, and gold and silver follow the frenzy. Is this really the start of a rally or just a dip before falling back again... I'm still hesitant to touch silver. I got caught in a rebound last time, so I'll wait for a 10% drop this time. Can crude oil really turn around next year? It still seems to depend on how the US manipulates... Gold has had five consecutive bullish days. I'm worried, just waiting for the moment it turns negative to buy the dip. An event over the weekend directly rewrote the script. This is the feeling of web3—risk and opportunity coexist. Before the Spring Festival, gold needs to consolidate. I'll reduce my position first and stay calm. That Venezuela incident, in a month, no one might remember it, but the gold price should rise if it’s going to. Silver is so volatile, but I still believe in the opportunities for oil next year. Precious metals have already risen. Everyone says they are safe-haven assets, but isn’t this wave still about geopolitics? Fundamentals should have gone out of fashion long ago.

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 01-04 09:41

Geopolitical tensions always throw everything into chaos. This round of crude oil seems to have some potential. Silver, don't rush to buy on the rebound. Nine out of ten times, you'll get caught in a false breakout. Five consecutive bullish days for gold are a bit suspicious; a turn to the downside might be the real opportunity. Will crude oil rebound next year? That depends on how the Americans mess around. This is quite exciting. Safe-haven assets are always like this: when an event occurs, everything comes alive; once the event passes, they return to the dull fundamentals. Before the Spring Festival, we need to mentally prepare for this correction, everyone. Anyway, I'm waiting for a 10% drop before acting. Don't fight the rebound.

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BTCWaveRider

· 01-04 09:40

Whenever geopolitical events occur, silver goes crazy. Don't follow the trend in this rebound—just wait for it to drop another 10%. That's the real opportunity.

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DefiVeteran

· 01-04 09:30

Whenever the geopolitical situation stirs, I think about bottom-fishing. Will I get trapped again this time? Haha Can crude oil really turn around next year? I’m skeptical; sticking to gold is safer. I gave up on silver a long time ago. I sell on rebounds; there’s no other way. Gold has been rising for five months straight. Dare to chase? Let’s wait until it turns bearish, friends. I believe in a pre-Lunar New Year correction, but don’t expect the gains to be anything special. The US is stirring things up again. Can commodities really benefit from this?

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