#预测市场 I just saw a prediction about Trump Gold Card on Polymarket and almost got scared by the $1.3 billion figure😅. But after taking a closer look at the comment section, the platform directly raised doubts—they said only data that is finally approved and payment completed counts, so Trump's statement this time doesn't meet the standard.

What's even more interesting is that now the probability of "sales being zero" is actually as high as 89%? This made me suddenly realize that prediction markets seem to be tools for "verifying reality" with data! It's not about who shouts the loudest, but about real money talking.

This also reminded me of the experience when I first got into the space and was fooled by some "certain news"... Now I increasingly feel that before making decisions in the crypto world, you need to check multiple channels, especially platforms like Polymarket that reflect true expectations with probabilities. But to be honest, I’m still a bit confused about how prediction markets work exactly. Can any expert give a simple explanation? Why are these prediction data so accurate? 🤔