i’m taking NO on this

not because venezuela is “safe”
but because real invasions don’t get teased on polymarket first

when the US actually moves
you don’t see a clean date
you don’t see tidy probabilities
you see markets gap, not drift from 11% to 31%

31% is fear pricing
not intel pricing

no mobilization
no congressional signal
no emergency framing

this is traders front-running headlines, not tanks

my bet: NO by jan 31
and if i’m wrong, money won’t be the biggest problem anymore