#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 this year on Polymarket drop to 11%, I am thinking this actually reflects a shift in the market’s true expectations for the future trend.

Prediction markets are inherently interesting — they incentivize people to express their judgments about the future with real money, rather than guessing based on feelings. This "money voting" approach naturally filters out noise, turning probability data into a live market sentiment indicator.

From the data, 32% of people are still betting on $95,000, and 24% think it might fall below $80,000 — this shows that the market actually has considerable disagreement and uncertainty about the upcoming trend. This is precisely where prediction markets are most valuable; they don’t give you a definite answer but instead make this uncertainty transparent.

Prediction markets hide the magic of decentralized information aggregation. Without intermediaries, manipulation, or bias, they rely on the genuine judgments of participants colliding, ultimately presenting collective intelligence in the form of probabilities. This is a microcosm of how Web3 transforms the flow of information — enabling value to flow freely under transparent rules, ultimately serving the entire ecosystem.

In the future, similar prediction applications will become more common, covering finance, politics, technology, and other fields. As more people participate, these platforms will truly become beacons of information.