Recently, the international situation has been turbulent, and the geopolitical game over oil has become a focal point. The United States has been active in energy strategy, reshaping the global supply chain through oil and gas interests, putting pressure on emerging economies' cheap energy channels. This may seem like short-term oil price fluctuations are calm, but the long-term accumulation of geopolitical risks should not be underestimated—it's this uncertainty that continues to boost demand for safe-haven assets.

Speaking of safe havens, gold's performance this year has directly surpassed expectations. Gold prices have been steadily rising since the beginning of the year, currently oscillating in the $4300-$4400 per ounce range, with a projected increase of over 60% by 2025, marking the strongest annual performance in over four decades. Industry leaders are optimistic about the future trend, with many institutions predicting prices around 5000 (Bank of America, JPMorgan, UBS, etc., are all bullish), and more aggressive voices even mention $6000.

The underlying logic is clear: central banks are more enthusiastic than ever in purchasing (setting a record in 2025), the US dollar continues to weaken, geopolitical conflicts are increasing, and there are expectations that the Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy. More importantly, the de-dollarization experiment promoted by BRICS—the "Unit" pilot project—operates with a mode of 40% gold and 60% local currency basket. Although still in testing, the trend of de-dollarization has already taken shape and will evolve over the long term.

Compared to Bitcoin, the situation appears more delicate. BTC is currently trading around the 91k level. Although the 2025 gains are considerable, they are clearly weaker than gold. Cryptocurrencies are more closely tied to the US dollar; once liquidity conditions improve, a strong rebound could be triggered. However, at present, the performance of risk assets still depends on the expectation of rate cuts. The market now tends to believe that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once or twice in 2026, or even pause altogether. If rate cuts are delayed until May or June, Bitcoin could face short-term pressure. In contrast, gold, with its stronger consensus foundation and safe-haven attributes, has shown a more robust momentum and more stable trend in the short term.

Silver's situation is also worth noting. Silver prices are currently hovering around $72-$73, with a projected increase of over 140% in 2025, highly correlated with gold, but with a broader industrial demand dimension—solar energy, electronics, and other sectors are major drivers. However, silver also faces risks: if rebalancing triggers selling pressure, the upward momentum of gold could slow down.

Looking ahead to Q1 2026, the probability of gold and silver rising is relatively high (geopolitical factors + continued net central bank purchases), but a mid-term correction may occur. From a longer-term perspective, the outlook for risk assets remains optimistic, with many high-quality assets still attractive (mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.). The interaction between geopolitical tensions and monetary policy will determine whether commodities and the crypto market will continue to experience high volatility this year.