Bitcoin Struggles Through Q4 Slump, Latest Price Rally Shows Technical Recovery Signs

Bitcoin’s latest attempt to recover toward the $91,000 threshold has offered the broader crypto market a temporary reprieve, yet most market observers remain unconvinced that meaningful upside momentum has returned. The cryptocurrency sector experienced one of its most challenging second halves on record, with seasonal headwinds compounding broader sentiment challenges.

Current Market Movement: Mixed Signals Across Major Tokens

Major digital assets displayed modest gains in recent trading sessions. XRP rallied 4.54% over 24 hours, while Solana (SOL) climbed 2.75%, Cardano (ADA) advanced 4.18%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) surged 6.65%, leading the pack. Ethereum (ETH) posted a more modest 1.34% increase. In contrast, Aave (AAVE) demonstrated relative strength with a 4.04% 24-hour gain, bucking earlier weakness tied to ongoing governance complications.

The broader cryptocurrency market capitalization has reclaimed the $3 trillion threshold—a psychologically significant barometer that has proven contentious territory for both bulls and bears throughout the past month.

The Technical Rally: Recovery or Exhaustion?

Despite these gains, seasoned analysts caution that the current upswing reflects technical rebalancing rather than fundamental conviction returning to the market. FxPro’s chief market analyst observed that the crypto sector is mounting a “new attempt at growth, but this is not yet a recovery.” The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has only modestly improved, reaching 25—a level suggesting traders are retreating from extreme capitulation but remain far from embracing risk appetite.

Bitcoin, trading near $88,000 during Asian trading hours early in the week, continues testing resistance within a confined band that has persisted since early last week. The latest price rally to $91.24K reflects what many view as capitulation recovery rather than conviction-driven accumulation.

Persistent Headwinds: The Q4 Reality Check

The numbers tell a sobering story. Bitcoin has declined more than 22% throughout the fourth quarter alone, positioning 2025 among the weakest year-end performances outside major bear markets. Historical context underscores the challenge: while Q4 has traditionally delivered Bitcoin’s strongest rallies, it has also witnessed severe liquidations when combined with liquidity constraints and macroeconomic uncertainty.

More troubling for bulls: Bitcoin remains approximately 30% below its 2025 peak and sits below levels from the calendar year’s start. As one market analyst noted, attempts to restore year-to-date performance back to parity “offer little consolation” given how decisively bullish sentiment has evaporated since earlier in the year.

Risk Factor: North American Trading Hours Vulnerability

The market structure itself presents ongoing peril. Substantial gains accumulated during Asian and European trading have repeatedly reversed course when North American markets open for business—a pattern suggesting underlying fragility and potential for sudden capitulation.

For those tracking Bitcoin price in AUD and other fiat pairs, this structural vulnerability merits close attention as seasonal weakness persists into the final weeks of the year.