## Which Fertilizer Stocks Merit Investor Attention in 2025?

The global fertilizer sector is attracting renewed interest as agricultural fundamentals strengthen across major growing regions. Rising crop demand, robust farm economics, and expectations of expanded planted acreage are creating tailwinds for fertilizer companies, despite near-term pricing pressures. Three publicly-traded players—**Nutrien Ltd.** (NTR), **ICL Group Ltd.** (ICL), and **CF Industries Holdings, Inc.** (CF)—stand out as compelling opportunities in this space.

## Industry Momentum: What's Driving the Fertilizer Stocks Rally?

Global demand for major crop nutrients—phosphates, potash, and nitrogen—continues to strengthen, supported by persistent food consumption growth and farmer purchasing power. In North America, elevated corn and soybean acreage combined with healthy farm income are fueling fertilizer demand. Similarly, Brazil and India show robust grower economics, positioning these regions as key demand drivers.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects net farm income will surge 29.5% year-over-year to $180.1 billion in 2025, underpinned by $42.4 billion in government payments—a 354.5% increase from 2024. This income surge is expected to translate into stronger fertilizer purchasing by agricultural producers.

However, the sector faces near-term headwinds. Global supply increases and lower energy costs have compressed phosphate and potash prices since their 2022 peaks, while nitrogen prices have declined steadily since early 2023. Though prices have stabilized, year-over-year weakness remains a profitability drag for fertilizer companies.

## How Do Fertilizer Stocks Stack Up Against the Broader Market?

The Zacks Fertilizer Industry carries a Rank #39, placing it in the top 16% of over 250 tracked sectors. However, the group underperformed both the S&P 500 and the Basic Materials sector over the past twelve months, declining 1.1% versus the S&P 500's 23.3% gain and the sector's 0.7% increase.

On valuation metrics, fertilizer stocks appear reasonably priced. The industry trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.98X, below the S&P 500's 17.67X and in line with the Basic Materials sector's 11.51X. Over the past five years, the industry has ranged from 4.97X to 21.88X, with a median of 10.71X, suggesting current valuations offer modest upside potential.

## Three Fertilizer Stocks Worth Monitoring

**Nutrien (NTR):** The Canada-based crop inputs leader is capitalizing on strong global agricultural demand, particularly in North America where it commands a substantial market presence. Strategic acquisitions, operational efficiency gains, and rising adoption of its digital platform are enhancing competitive positioning. Lower natural gas costs provide additional tailwinds. NTR carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) with expected 2025 earnings growth of 5.9%. Consensus estimates have been revised 1.6% upward over the past 60 days, and the company projects 12% long-term earnings-per-share growth.

**ICL Group (ICL):** This Israel-based specialty chemicals and fertilizer producer is executing a targeted strategy to expand high-margin specialties businesses. Recent acquisitions—including Nitro 1000 in Brazil and Custom Ag Formulators—strengthen its market footprint in key regions. A new food specialty plant in China enhances customer relationships and opens new revenue channels. ICL holds a Zacks Rank #2 with anticipated 2025 earnings growth of 14.4%. The company has exceeded Zacks Consensus Estimates in four consecutive quarters, with an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.1%.

**CF Industries (CF):** Illinois-based CF Industries manufactures nitrogen and hydrogen products for fertilizer and industrial applications. The company benefits from elevated nitrogen demand, particularly for industrial uses in North America, while lower natural gas prices support margins. CF prioritizes shareholder value creation through robust cash flow deployment. Currently rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), CF posts a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise averaging 10.3% and boasts a projected long-term earnings-per-share growth rate of 37%.

## The Bottom Line

Fertilizer stocks face a mixed but ultimately supportive backdrop. While pricing headwinds persist, healthy farm income, expanded planting intentions, and normalized supply-demand dynamics position the sector for steady growth. Among the three fertilizer stocks highlighted, NTR and ICL's stronger Zacks Rankings suggest relatively more favorable near-term outlooks compared to CF.