2026-01-04 15:25:15

Latest data shows that market expectations for the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting have shifted. The probability of holding interest rates steady has risen to 83.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point rate cut is relatively low at 16.6%.

What does this reflect? The Fed has recently been emphasizing a "data-dependent" decision-making approach. Officials are cautiously avoiding premature policy easing, worried that it could reignite inflation. In other words, the window for a rate cut has not truly opened yet.

For participants in the crypto market, there are two key dates to watch:

First is the January 31st policy statement, expected to be released on that day. Every word in the statement could hint at the Fed's true thoughts on the future interest rate path.

Second is the release of the US December CPI data on January 11th. If there are signs of significant cooling in inflation, it could break the market's current conservative expectations and alter subsequent policy judgments.

In simple terms, waiting for data validation at this stage is the rational trading approach.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

9 Likes

Reward
9
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

UnluckyValidator

· 01-05 15:43

83.4% unchanged... This is ridiculous, it’s basically no chance of a rate cut, where’s the promised easing? Having to watch both CPI and wording, so exhausting, might as well go all in and wait for the announcement Wait, wait, wait, always waiting, data is always misleading Is this round of inflation really going to reignite? Feels endless The Fed’s "reliance on data" is just procrastination, they can put anything into the data anyway The interest rate path is still a mystery, us retail investors can only guess blindly

View OriginalReply0

WenMoon42

· 01-04 15:54

83.4% unchanged... As soon as this data came out, I knew I would have to wait again, just anxiously watching the CPI. Alright, I'm used to it anyway.

View OriginalReply0

LayerZeroHero

· 01-04 15:50

83% no rate cut? Oh my, this time the Federal Reserve is really tough, the inflation ghost has them scared stiff. Let's wait for the CPI data; only if it really drops will there be hope, otherwise we'll just keep lying flat. We'll see the true colors at the end of January; by then, a slight change in wording could sway the market for three days. It's basically a gamble on CPI, don't overthink it. Now, going all in only has one result—being proven wrong.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropAnxiety

· 01-04 15:48

Wait, 83.4% remains unchanged? That means interest rate cuts are truly nowhere in sight. The Federal Reserve is still stubborn as a dead duck. Waiting for CPI and the interest rate statement, we retail investors have to keep trading based on others' faces. So frustrating. Rely on data? Relying on data is just an excuse to do nothing. The CPI on January 11th is the real watershed; whether the index can fall below expectations depends on this wave. Bored, still faster than airdrops. Who cares about these central bankers?

View OriginalReply0

ChainWatcher

· 01-04 15:47

83.4% unchanged, the Federal Reserve really can keep things stable. It feels like interest rate cuts are still a long way off. Wait, January 11th CPI is the key. If this data really comes down... then January 31st will be interesting. During this data wait, I really can't sit still. Feels like a reversal could happen at any time. The Fed's "rely on data" approach is pretty slick. Anyway, they can spin any result they want. Who dares to bet on this wave of market movement? I'm holding cash and waiting.

View OriginalReply0