**December's Chicago Business Barometer Surges to Recovery Levels, Far Exceeding Analyst Forecasts**

According to fresh data released by MNI Indicators this week, Chicago-area business activity experienced a sharp turnaround in December, with the regional barometer climbing to 43.5 after November's disappointing 36.3 reading. Market watchers had penciled in a more modest 39.5, making this rebound significantly more robust than anticipated.

The strength of this barometer reading was largely propelled by a dramatic resurgence in new orders. The orders index rocketed up 11.8 points, essentially recouping the prior month's losses. Production activity showed similar vigor, jumping 9.6 points to reach levels not seen since March and climbing above the 2025 average. Order backlogs also expanded substantially with a 12.3-point gain, though MNI Indicators cautioned that this index still sits comfortably below 40, having breached that threshold for only three months throughout the year.

**Mixed Signals Beneath the Surface**

However, the story becomes more nuanced when examining other components. Supplier delivery times compressed by 3.6 points but remained above the 50-level expansion threshold. Employment figures presented a less encouraging picture, with the jobs barometer edging down 0.6 points to mark its weakest performance since May 2009. Price pressures similarly softened, with the prices paid index retreating 1.1 points, though notably, no survey respondents reported experiencing lower input costs for a third consecutive month.

Despite the December bounce, the regional barometer's 25-month streak below 50 persists, underscoring an extended period of contraction in Chicago-area business conditions. While December's rebound offers some optimism, sustained movement above the 50-mark would be needed to signal a definitive shift in regional economic momentum.