Seeing someone lose 2 million in the prediction market, I looked into their trading records and realized that this is not a matter of luck, but a critical trading mistake—lacking true risk control awareness.

Their performance doesn't seem too bad: 53 predictions with a 51% win rate. But where's the problem? They place single bets starting at 400,000, with no early profit-taking mechanism and no stop-loss set. As a result, a single Liverpool-related prediction lost 1.58 million, wiping out all previous profits. This is a classic case of "small wins, big losses."

The crypto world is actually full of stories like this. An experienced trader once told me something very insightful—"Win rate is not the core; survival is the core." Even if your win rate exceeds 50%, one big mistake can wipe out all your previous efforts.

So, what should you do? First red line: do not bet more than 5% of your total funds on a single trade. Even good opportunities should be diversified. Second: no matter how confident you are, always set a stop-loss. Take profits when they arrive, cut losses when they hit the line. Holding on stubbornly is the dumbest move. Third: high-volatility markets driven by public information (like event predictions) should not be heavily invested in. The uncertainty is even greater than in the crypto market—it's pure gambling.

In short, he treated predictions as a guaranteed profit, completely underestimating the destructive power of risk. The essence of trading is a combination of probability and risk control, not relying on a single all-in move to turn things around. Those who can make money consistently are never the ones with the highest win rate, but those who understand how to control their single-loss risks.