In the first week of the new year, the crypto market has already kicked off — and this is not just ordinary volatility, but a critical period that sets the tone for the entire 2026.

On the surface, this week's schedule doesn't seem particularly special, but in reality, every data release and every official speech directly points to the core contradiction: on one hand, the Federal Reserve is striving to maintain a "hawkish stance" and constantly warns of inflation risks; on the other hand, the labor market continues to send signals of weakness. BTC and the entire market are seeking balance amid the tug-of-war between these two forces.

To understand the significance of this week, one must grasp the current situation of the Federal Reserve — it is already deeply divided internally. The December rate cut decision narrowly passed with a 9:3 vote, and there is fierce debate among members about whether to prioritize "anti-inflation" or "preventing unemployment." The result is an interesting phenomenon: money has been allocated, but the attitude remains firm — the dot plot hints that there may only be one rate cut in 2026, or even that there could be rate hikes.

It's like a reluctant parent giving their child pocket money while sternly saying, "There won't be any after this." The market indeed received a rate cut, but there's dissatisfaction internally — this is also the real reason why the year's end market has lacked momentum. The speeches of the two new voting members in 2026 and the release of economic data will be the true tests ahead.