#预测市场 Seeing Polymarket's plan to migrate out of Polygon and build their own L2, honestly, this is worth pondering.

On the surface, it appears to be a technical upgrade, but I have to be honest—don't ignore the underlying risk signals. The Polygon outage directly impacted their business, which shows what? It shows that entrusting your fate to others means you have to bear their failures. But building your own L2 isn't necessarily a good thing either; it involves high costs, significant risks, and requires deep technical expertise.

I've been following many projects in the prediction market space, and the pattern is often the same: riding the hype early on, then starting "strategic upgrades" mid-term, and eventually facing delays and funding pressures. Polymarket now launching 5-minute markets, abandoning third-party providers, and planning an L2 all seem like big moves, but what I care more about is—when will these promises actually materialize?

A word of caution: don't get blinded by the hype around the sector's narrative. Prediction markets already face compliance issues in multiple jurisdictions, and the fact that projects are still tinkering with their infrastructure is a red flag. Before participating in such projects, ask yourself: if the project suddenly halts due to regulatory or technical issues, what will happen to your funds? History has taught us too many times that during major reforms, we're often just one step away from a collapse.

Approach new concepts rationally, and don't chase highs.