2026 Altcoin Rally: Market Split on Whether Supercycle Extends Beyond Bitcoin's $126K Peak

The cryptocurrency market is sharply divided over what comes next. On one side, bearish voices contend that Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak at $126,000 marks the end of this cycle’s strength. On the flip side, prominent figures like Raoul Pal are laying out a more expansive thesis: a 5-year supercycle that could push the real action into altcoins during early 2026.

The Case for an Altseason Surge

Here’s where things get interesting for alt traders. Despite 2025 showing no clear altseason peak, technical indicators are flashing mixed signals. RSI and MACD patterns suggest room for moves, while the macro backdrop—low inflation rates and whispers of fresh quantitative easing—creates conditions that historically fuel alternative asset rallies.

What the Macro Environment Suggests

Central bank policy shifts could be the catalyst. When liquidity expands and inflation stays in check, capital tends to rotate away from just Bitcoin into riskier, higher-potential alts. The first and second quarters of 2026 are being eyed as the window where this rotation might accelerate.

The Skeptical View

Bear case proponents argue momentum has exhausted itself. Bitcoin’s run-up and consolidation near $126,000 feels like a natural stopping point to them. They see limited evidence of fresh catalysts pushing beyond current levels.

Where It Stands

Whether 2026 delivers a genuine altseason or validates the bearish thesis likely hinges on how macroeconomic conditions evolve. For now, the altcoin space remains in a holding pattern—neither the breakout some expect nor the breakdown others predict has materialized.