#以太坊大户持仓变化 I used to overinterpret every major move of on-chain whales until I learned my lesson... One afternoon at the end of 2025, I saw a top-tier address transfer 20,000 ETH to a major exchange in one go, and my first reaction was "a signal of dumping." Without thinking, I cleared my ETH position and started warning wildly in the community.

Then the reality hit — that address wasn’t selling, just arbitraging between different exchanges. Over the next 72 hours, ETH surged by 8%, and I perfectly dodged this wave of the market...

This incident taught me a few lessons: **Transfers don’t equal selling**, they could be exchange rebalancing, staking arrangements, or institutional-level operations; **Timing is ten times more important than the action itself**; **You can’t rely solely on on-chain data for decision-making**.

Speaking of the current market, let’s look at what the data says—

ETH current price is $3,158.20, trading sideways over the past 24 hours, with a volume of $27.05 billion, fluctuating between $3,156.63 and $3,162.40. How about technical indicators? RSI is at 59.99, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish state, not overbought or oversold, which is ideal. The Bollinger Bands are at $3,026, $3,009, and $2,992 for the upper, middle, and lower bands respectively. The TD sequence counts to 5, with no clear buy or sell signals for now.

From a trading perspective, the current price is above the Bollinger middle band, RSI is healthy, so a bullish bias is more appropriate. Short-term key supports are at $3,100 (psychological level) and $3,000 (Bollinger middle band), with resistance at $3,200 and $3,250. If you want to participate, it’s recommended to go light on longs, with a stop-loss below $3,080 for safety. Once breaking through $3,200, consider adding to your position, targeting $3,300.

Interested friends, share in the comments if you’ve also encountered situations of "misreading whale intentions." Let’s avoid the pitfalls together.

Risk warning: The above is only market observation and technical analysis, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please control your risk exposure and manage your funds carefully.