Having engaged in crypto trading for these years, from initially obsessing over candlestick charts to now being able to support myself through trading, my deepest realization is actually very simple: opportunities are everywhere, the key is whether you can understand them. Today I want to discuss a problem that beginners can never avoid—how to determine if a coin's breakout is genuine or a trap set by whales? My method isn't anything sophisticated, just four words: volume, price, time, and position.

**Volume: Money Talks and Never Boasts**

When a coin has been consolidating for a long time and suddenly surges in volume, don’t rush to buy in. The common pattern I see is this: gentle probing in the early stage, then funds decrease their volume to test for shakeouts, and once the chips are sufficiently concentrated, a real explosion follows. Take a certain DeFi project from last year as an example: it consolidated for two months, first gradually increasing volume to test previous highs, then a week later, volume decreased for a pullback. Suddenly, one day, the trading volume exceeded the 5-day average by more than 50%. After that day, the main upward wave began.

What’s the most important? The surge in volume must be sustained. Pulsed volume increases are often whales fishing—if the volume on the breakout day isn’t strong enough, I’ll pass directly.

**Price: Closing Price Is the True Vote**

Anyone can push the price higher intraday, but whether it can hold key levels is the real skill. I especially like to look at weekly closing prices: if three consecutive weekly closes are above resistance levels, and each pullback doesn’t break the support, the probability of a successful breakout can double.

Conversely, look at failed cases: a certain Meme coin in 2023 suddenly surged 20% intraday, breaking previous highs, but by the close, it was hammered back down, leaving a long upper shadow. Classic trap! Funds didn’t truly follow through; it was just an impulsive move.

**Time: The Subtle Relationship Between Consolidation Periods and Upside Space**

There’s an old saying: "The longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical," and that’s true, but it also depends on the quality of the consolidation. Dead-volume sideways trading is much weaker than oscillations with increased volume—highly concentrated chips during consolidation mean that once a breakout occurs, the explosive power is on a different level. Based on my experience, coins that consolidate for months with low volume often see surprising gains after breaking out.