#数字资产动态追踪 The Bank of Japan strikes again—interest rate hike cycle far from over

2026 begins with major news. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda sent a clear signal: rate hikes will not stop and will continue to tighten monetary policy alongside rising wages and prices. What does this mean for global liquidity?

Currently, Japan’s benchmark interest rate has risen to 0.75%, hitting a 30-year high. But this is not the end—institutions generally predict that the final rate could climb to the 1%-1.5% range, implying at least 1-2 more rate hikes on the way.

**Global ¥4 trillion Yen arbitrage trading faces "cutoff"**

Does this number sound unfamiliar? Think of it this way: over the past decade, investors borrowed大量低成本日元 (large amounts of low-cost yen) to seek returns in high-yield assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This "costless capital" supported part of the crypto rally.

Rate hikes change the game. Rising financing costs mean these funds are no longer "painless." History offers us several clear cases:

- After Japan’s first rate hike in July 2024, Bitcoin dropped 23% in a single week, wiping out about $60 billion in the entire crypto market
- In the previous three rate hike cycles, BTC experienced declines of over 20% each time

**The current situation is more complex**

On one side, Japan continues to "pump liquidity," while on the other, the Federal Reserve faces divergence over the pace of rate cuts. Global liquidity shows signs of divergence—this is a dual test for the crypto market, which relies on cross-border capital flows.

Currently, Bitcoin is repeatedly testing the critical support level of $90,000, with signs on-chain that institutional investors are reducing their positions in advance.

But some voices believe the market has already digested the rate hike expectations. Coupled with the possibility of continued easing by the Fed, after "all negatives are priced in," a rebound may occur.

The question is before us: will this liquidity shift be the final straw that crushes the market, or a "wolf coming" that the market has already anticipated and preemptively defused? Is your choice to defend or to attack?