Looking at the recent market trends, many people are pondering one question: why does this wave of Bitcoin's price movement not align with the traditional "four-year cycle"?

Thinking back, the previous pattern was very clear—before the halving, there was accumulation; in the year following the halving, prices surged to the top; then came a long bear market. But this time? The halving is in April 2024, and although it reached 126,000 in October 2025, it didn't continue the past "skyrocketing" trend. Instead, it entered a phase of repeated bottoming. Now, it's early 2026, and the market is still in this state of flux. This has led many to question: has the cycle really become invalid?

Actually, it's not that the cycle has disappeared, but that the game rules are upgrading. Bitcoin is transitioning from a retail-dominated "stormy wave" phase to a new era led by institutional funds.

**Supply-driven momentum is waning**

Let's look at the most fundamental aspect: the impact of halving is gradually diminishing. Previously, each halving directly cut new coin issuance in half, which was a nuclear-level shock to the market. But now, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate has fallen below 1%—even lower than gold. Data shows that Bitcoin's daily new supply is only about 450 coins, roughly equivalent to $40 million. For whales holding thousands or even tens of thousands of BTC, this is hardly enough to shake the market.

The era of relying solely on "supply reduction narratives" to push prices higher is gradually coming to an end.

**Participant structure has completely changed**

A more fundamental change comes from the shift in market players. The market used to be mainly a playground for retail investors, chasing rallies and selling off quickly. But now, it's different—more and more institutional "iron fists" are involved. These institutions are not here for short-term speculation; they are accumulating and strategically positioning. As a result, market sell-offs naturally decrease, and the bottom becomes easier to defend. This structural change is the true engine behind this cycle.