The latest statement from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has sent a strong hawkish signal—interest rate hikes will not be easily stopped, with rates already at a 30-year high but still with room to rise. This information is highly significant for the global crypto market.

The massive "yen arbitrage funds" supporting global risk assets are now facing a test. As Japanese interest rates continue to rise, this liquidity will inevitably flow back from the global markets, with cryptocurrencies being the first to feel the impact.

Historical data is in front of us—after Japan's rate hike in July 2024, Bitcoin plummeted 23% within a week. Looking further back, the previous three rate hike cycles all involved declines of over 20%. On-chain data also shows signs of institutions gradually reducing their positions.

However, this time may be different. On one hand, the market may have already partially priced in the rate hike expectations; on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's rate cut game still has uncertainties, which will influence global risk appetite. The bulls and bears are indeed in a confrontation.

Currently, Bitcoin is pushing toward the critical level of 90,000. At this juncture, investors need to think calmly: should they avoid risk and exit the market, or take a gamble on a "bottoming out" rebound?

The core advice is simple—be alert to liquidity shock risks, but also remember that market cycles are still turning. Rationally control your positions; risk management should always come first.