SOL's recent trend is quite interesting—short-term oscillating rebound, but the mid- to long-term story depends on ETF funding and technological upgrades. Let's first clarify the key points.

**Recent Targets and Support Levels**

In the short term, the $130-140 range is critical, with the $138 line being especially important as it aligns with the 50-day moving average. If it can hold steady here, there's a good chance to push up to $146-150. Conversely, if it drops, $124-127 presents an opportunity for phased buying, and below that, $116 is the hard stop-loss level.

**Where is the Driving Force?**

On the positive side, spot ETF approval has been granted, and in just over a month, it has attracted $7.65 billion in funds, indicating institutional allocation and market interest. Plus, the upcoming technological upgrades with Apenglow and Firedancer will enhance network performance and stability, which is especially beneficial for DeFi and RWA ecosystems. The collaboration with Western Union for stablecoin settlement is also coming into effect, signaling real movement in the ecosystem.

However, risks do exist. The network has experienced outages before, so stability remains a concern. Competition is fierce, with Ethereum's L2 solutions and various new blockchains diverting resources. Macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory developments could also lower the overall market risk appetite.

**Mid- to Long-term Imagination Space**

If the ETF and technological upgrades proceed as planned in the first half of 2026, $150-170 could be the baseline, with a chance to surge beyond $200. But if it falls below $100, risks could amplify. Looking at the entire 2026, a neutral expectation is $180-220, with an optimistic scenario exceeding $260, though a pessimistic retracement below $100 is also possible.

**Practical Trading Approach**

For short-term trading, consider phased entries within the $124-127 range, with a stop-loss below $116; once it breaks above $138, add to your position, targeting $146-150. For medium-term traders, start reducing positions in the $150-170 range—don't be too greedy. Risk management is key—keep your position size below 10% of total assets, set trailing stops to lock in profits. These may sound like clichés, but they can truly save your position.