The most suspenseful question in the crypto circle in 2026 ultimately boils down to one thing—when will the Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates? This week is the critical moment for verification, with non-farm payroll data, CPI, and Federal Reserve officials' speeches coming one after another. Each data point can directly shake the short-term trend of Bitcoin.

Understanding the logic behind this is simple: the current rise and fall of the crypto market is now completely linked to macroeconomic conditions. During the tariff war last year, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks once surged to 0.47. What does this indicate? It shows that changes in the risks of traditional financial markets now directly impact the crypto space. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is the connecting line—when rate cuts happen, liquidity loosens, funds flood into risk assets, and Bitcoin is likely to rise; conversely, if tightening expectations strengthen, funds start to flee, and the crypto market cannot remain unaffected.

Let's first look at two major events on Monday. The December US ISM Manufacturing PMI data is very important, as it directly reflects economic activity. If the PMI falls below expectations, it indicates economic slowdown, giving the Fed more reason to cut rates, which is positive for Bitcoin; but if the data exceeds expectations, it means the economy still has resilience, and rate cuts are less urgent, putting pressure on the crypto market.

Another is Kashkari's speech. How he evaluates inflation is key. If he says "inflation has been effectively controlled," even a slight hint will immediately boost market expectations for rate cuts; but if he continues to emphasize "maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation," the crypto market might decline in advance. To grasp the rhythm in this wave of行情, you need to keep a close eye on these signals.