I recently saw a comment in the community that struck a chord with many people: "Last year, chasing hot topics cost me half a year's salary; this year, missing regulatory news again, how can we survive in the on-chain market?" Honestly, it's really tough for retail investors right now. The days of just shouting orders and following trends to get it right are gone for good. After the regulatory policies are implemented in 2025, the entire market gameplay has changed dramatically, and those sticking to old routines are basically just handing away opportunities to big funds.

I've been in this circle for 8 years, stumbling through countless pitfalls—probably over 800. Today, I want to thoroughly explain the most critical market logic for 2026. If you can understand these points, at least you'll be able to avoid losing several tens of thousands of yuan.

Let's start with the core idea: forget about short-term price speculation. The market is no longer in an era driven solely by sentiment. Rules and capital are now the two main forces determining direction. The regulatory actions in the US in 2025 seem to set boundaries for the industry, but in essence, they are opening the door for institutional funds. For retail investors to survive, we must follow the two main lines: "compliance" and "institutionalization." There are no other options.

So, what exactly has the regulation changed? Many people hear about new legislation but are unclear about its actual impact on ordinary investors. Let me break it down plainly: the Stablecoin Act passed last year (GENIUS Act) is not just about registering stablecoins. Its real purpose is to institutionalize the "US dollar flow" on the chain. Now, only qualified institutions can issue stablecoins, and they must maintain 100% reserves, with monthly audited reports made public. Those fly-by-night stablecoins that used to issue and misuse reserves arbitrarily are basically heading for a dead end.

What does this mean for us investors? The most direct benefit is a "significant reduction in the risk of getting burned." In previous markets, you never knew when a stablecoin might fail, and if it did, the entire ecosystem would shake. Now, with this regulatory framework, although not 100% safe, many risks are effectively mitigated.

Another hidden change is the "restructuring of market liquidity." Compliant stablecoins can more easily enter and exit traditional financial systems, meaning that institutional funds now have legitimate channels for on-chain investments. You'll notice that the driving force behind the 2026 market is gradually shifting from retail FOMO to institutional strategic allocations. In simple terms, big players are entering, and small retail investors either follow the rhythm or risk being cut.

There's also a point that's easy to overlook: regulatory compliance is narrowing the "information asymmetry" in the industry. Previously, retail investors and institutions had huge information gaps, with all kinds of black-box operations and insider info flying around. Now, audit reports and legislative clauses are becoming more transparent. Although not fully public yet, there are at least rules to follow. This is actually good news for those willing to learn—meaning you have more opportunities to grasp the rhythm through studying policies, rather than relying solely on luck.

In 2026, I believe the core strategy is "follow compliance and avoid playing with fire." Don't dream of getting rich overnight in projects operating in gray areas; the risks and rewards are simply not aligned. Focus your energy on on-chain assets that are gradually aligning with traditional finance. The returns may not be as exciting, but you'll have a longer lifespan. The institutionalization process also suggests that "large-cap coins may have more opportunities than small-cap coins," because big funds need liquidity and stability. Small projects tend to be too volatile and don't match their risk appetite.

One final piece of advice: stop relying on intuition and luck. The profit logic for 2026 can be learned, but only if you're willing to invest time in understanding these new rules. Those with 8 years of experience still clinging to ideas from three years ago—well, the outcome for them in 2026 is predictable.