The new year has started, and the market is finally showing some activity.

From extreme fear gradually transitioning to fear, this change may seem subtle, but it’s significant for traders. Institutional funds are returning gradually, U.S. stocks are opening strongly for the year, and combined with expectations of macroeconomic easing, the overall crypto market sentiment is noticeably different. The global total market cap remains around $3.30 trillion, with 24-hour volatility holding steady in a mild 2-3% range, appearing relatively rational.

From the data, Bitcoin’s dominance remains stable at around 56.93%, indicating that large funds are still focused on the top assets. Trading volume has begun to gently increase, the Fear & Greed index sits at 44, and implied volatility has slightly risen. Market participants are waiting for the Fed’s new year moves and how institutions will position themselves next.

**Short-term outlook?** The bullish momentum is indeed strengthening. Year-end tax-loss harvesting is complete, liquidity is improving, which provides room for a rebound. Looking at the trend, it has moved away from the previous consolidation-down pattern, but as the old saying goes, beware of profit-taking after the holiday trading days.

**Regarding Bitcoin,** the price is stuck at $93,551.60, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.5%. Intraday, trading volume in the $93,000-$93,800 range has significantly increased, approaching previous highs. Institutional spot ETFs have also shifted to net inflows. Short-term resistance is at $93,800-$94,500, which is the dividing line between bulls and bears. Only a volume breakout above this can establish a true demand zone. Support is around $92,800-$93,200; holding this level keeps the outlook alive.

Overall, the start of the new year is on a good note, but don’t get carried away by the short-term rebound—the market challenges are still ahead.