#以太坊大户持仓变化 Per capita debt of $110,000, with a total of $37 trillion in US debt... It looks terrifying, but honestly, you’re probably never going to see the US default on its debt in your lifetime.

Why so confident? The only way for US debt to default is if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. In the American system, the probability of that happening is ridiculously low—less likely than Mars colliding with Earth. What’s backing this confidence? The US tax system, military strength, and technological monopoly position—these are the real chips. Just look at the US debt auction in early 2026, with oversubscription reaching 2.5 times—global capital is still pouring in madly.

Even more impressive, as the global reserve currency, the US dollar allows the Federal Reserve to directly print money to buy debt (quantitative easing) when necessary. This "privilege" is something other countries can’t even dream of.

So what are smart money doing now? While retail investors are still debating whether US debt will explode, institutions are rushing to buy those high-interest long-term US bonds. When the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates, these bonds will generate huge paper profits—2026 might be the most stable arbitrage opportunity here.

An interesting comparison is that the US debt system, although huge, is highly transparent, with the Federal Reserve operating independently and fiscal expansion constrained by the market. In contrast, some emerging markets have hidden debt piles and central banks that are easily subject to administrative intervention, severely underestimating debt risks.

But don’t get it wrong—just because US debt won’t explode doesn’t mean zero risk. Deteriorating dollar credit, repeated inflation, and global de-dollarization… these are the real issues to watch.

In practical terms? Don’t bet on US debt default; instead, leverage its "no explosion" characteristic. Ordinary investors can allocate US debt ETFs to lock in high yields. Investors should be alert: US debt has become the anchor for global asset pricing. When it fluctuates, a whole chain of assets will have to sway along.

Remember one thing: in the financial world, "too big to fail" remains the toughest rule of the game.