#2026年比特币行情展望 $PEPE $SUI $XRP

[37 Trillion US Dollars in Treasuries, per capita $110,000, Will It Really Explode? The Most Heartbreaking Truth Is Here]

First, the conclusion: The probability of witnessing a US debt default in this lifetime is even smaller than a meteor hitting Earth.

Why can I say that confidently?

The only way for US Treasuries to default is if the US Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. But within the American political game framework, this is virtually impossible—although the two parties are deeply divided, they have always united when it comes to debt issues.

The underlying logic is even more sobering: Behind US Treasuries stand the entire US tax system, military hegemony, and technological superiority. Global capital is still aggressively buying US Treasuries—by early 2026, US Treasury auction oversubscription reached 2.5 times, which is no coincidence. The key point is that the US dollar, as the global reserve currency, is under the absolute pricing power of the Federal Reserve. When necessary, they can directly print money to buy debt (quantitative easing), a privilege other countries can only dream of.

So what are smart money doing? While retail investors are anxious about a US debt bomb, institutions are rushing to buy long-term US Treasuries with high yields. Once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, the book yields of these bonds could double—some calculations suggest this could be one of the most stable arbitrage windows in 2026.

But don’t foolishly ignore the other side. Look at this comparison: US debt is transparent, the Federal Reserve operates independently, and fiscal expansion is constrained by the market. In contrast, some emerging markets have mountains of hidden debt (like certain local government bonds), and central bank policies depend on administrative will. The real risks are layered and hidden. So, US Treasuries themselves won’t explode, but the long-term erosion of dollar credibility, repeated inflation, and the undercurrent of de-dollarization worldwide—these are the real gray rhinos to watch out for.

So how to play it? Don’t bet on a US debt default; instead, leverage its "non-explosion" property. Ordinary investors can allocate to US Treasury ETFs (like TLT) to lock in high-yield income. But more importantly, recognize a fact: US Treasuries have become the pricing anchor for global assets. Once they fluctuate, the chain reaction can instantly trigger a crash across various asset classes.

There’s a saying in the financial world: "too big to fail," and this remains the most fundamental rule.