#以太坊大户持仓变化 Ethereum's current trend is like that eerie silence before a thunderstorm.

The Bollinger Bands are squeezed tightly, with the upper band at 3194 and the lower band at 3116. $ETH is stuck around 3170, pacing back and forth — this isn't healthy sideways movement, but a buildup of energy. The MACD indicator's two lines are close together, with decreasing volume below the zero line. Bulls and bears are fighting until the last moment, and the direction must be decided soon.

I'll be straightforward: the probability of an upward breakout exceeds 70%.

Two reasons support this:

On one side, on-chain data is speaking. Whale wallets are quietly accumulating, Ethereum reserves on exchanges have dropped to the lowest point in a year, and leading Layer2 projects have seen a 15% surge in locked-up tokens within a week — all solid backing.

On the other side, there are underlying news flows. The Ethereum Cancun upgrade test might be moved up to next Wednesday, the spot ETF supplementary materials have already been submitted on Wall Street, and the SEC's stance is quietly softening — most people can't see these developments.

Technical convergence, combined with on-chain accumulation and positive news, could trigger a breakout at any moment.

Entry plan: go long around 3170, stop below 3150, target the first wave at 3220, and if it stabilizes, add more to push to 3280. If it drops below 3120, buy the dip blindly — if it falls further, it's like free money.