#永续合约交易 Seeing James Wynn going long again, I have to be honest—behind these highly leveraged contracts' "precise predictions," there are often countless retail traders experiencing liquidation and bloodshed. 40x leverage, $1.24 million position, liquidation price at 87,111—does this number look dangerous? Bitcoin can trigger a liquidation with a drop of less than 2%.

What’s even more painful is that his previous short-term prediction in November (targeting 67,000) didn’t come true at all; the price hadn’t even fallen to that level. Yet this time, he confidently switches to long again. That’s the magic of perpetual contracts—when making money, the voice is loudest; when losing, you never hear a word.

CryptoQuant’s analysis is even more worth caution: demand growth slowing down, funding rates hitting the lowest since late 2023, and breaking below the 365-day moving average. These signals point in the same direction—market risk appetite is declining. The bear market bottom is estimated around 56,000, with medium-term support at 70,000.

What I want to say is that perpetual contracts are like gambling machines—high leverage offers tempting gains but the actual risks are completely disproportionate. Seeing others make $21,000 profit and wanting to follow the trend to go long often leads to falling into traps. When market analysts’ opinions diverge more and volatility increases, the smartest choice is to reduce leverage and control risks, not to chase and add positions. Those who survive long on the chain have long learned when to stay silent and observe, and when to stay away.