Anyone involved in crypto trading has definitely encountered this awkward situation—seeing a coin you’re optimistic about surge strongly, but as soon as you buy in, it underperforms, and you start doubting whether the whales have targeted you. Actually, the logic behind this isn’t that mysterious.

Why does this happen? Let’s start with the first reason. The coins that catch your eye because they’re doing well are only noticeable because they’re actually rising. But the key point is, when you see these coins, the larger timeframe (4H) or even smaller ones (1H) charts have already moved quite a bit, so when you buy in, you’re actually entering at a retracement point. It’s like missing your stop—getting on just as the slope begins downward.

The second perspective—this is a bear market. The rise of altcoins isn’t about everyone getting rich together; it’s the whales offloading, and they’ll sell as much as they can. The whales are roasting chestnuts in the fire, and risk management is definitely more important than expected gains.

Looking at the third dimension, altcoins at this stage can be divided into three categories:

**First type**: Those with sharp insight and boldness, who sense an impending rebound early and rush in ahead of the curve. These whales are clever and daring, and if the rebound is strong enough, they’re likely to push a second wave.

**Second type**: Those following the trend for a rebound, but lacking real momentum. It’s less a genuine rebound and more just riding the market’s natural fluctuations.

**Third type**: Very pragmatic—many traders prefer to hide and wait for a rally. But I have to be honest, coins that haven’t shown any signs of movement at this stage—if you buy in, just wait and see. Most likely, you’ll never get the chance. Because the window for a rebound isn’t that long, and at the end of a rally, the only coins that will surge are those you don’t hold—coins that were barely visible on the square before they started to rise.

Don’t overestimate your predictive ability—be decisive when it’s time.