ADA rebounds 6.43%, behind the resonance of ecological cooperation and technical aspects

Cardano experienced a rebound in the first trading week of the new year. As of January 6, 2026, ADA is priced at $0.43, up 6.43% in 24 hours, rebounding approximately 30% from $0.33 at the end of December. This wave of rebound is not an isolated technical correction but a resonance of positive ecosystem developments, on-chain capital, and technical indicators.

The Triple Drivers of the Rebound

Ecosystem Collaboration Expectations Heat Up

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently stated that integrating the Midnight privacy sidechain with the DeFi ecosystem based on XRP Ledger could bring disruptive changes to traditional finance systems. Ripple CTO David Schwartz publicly acknowledged the Midnight project, which market participants interpret as a signal of expanded cooperation between the two ecosystems. Against the backdrop of accelerating tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), this potential cross-chain alliance introduces new growth expectations for Cardano’s long-term development.

Related news shows that Cardano’s on-chain governance successfully completed a full year of operation in 2025, making it the only project among the TOP 10 blockchains with fully decentralized governance. Meanwhile, the Leios scaling solution has completed 67% of its development progress, expected to significantly improve on-chain throughput. These infrastructural improvements lay the foundation for ecological applications to be implemented.

On-Chain Capital Environment Improves

From a capital perspective, whale addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA significantly increased their holdings after December 26, with an increase of about $41 million in holdings. Additionally, the selling pressure from tokens with spent age intervals decreased by approximately 22%, indicating a more stable supply environment. This suggests that large holders are increasingly recognizing the long-term value of ADA.

Furthermore, Cardano DEX’s trading volume in December 2025 reached 450 million ADA, surpassing December 2024’s 427 million ADA, indicating a recovery in on-chain trading activity.

Technicals Show Bullish Divergence

On the daily chart, after ADA’s rebound from a recent low on December 25, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, with selling pressure waning and bearish momentum weakening. The price has approached the key trendline area of $0.38–$0.39. If the price can effectively reclaim the critical $0.38 level, the theoretical upside could target $0.69.

Risks to Watch

However, this rebound also faces substantial risks. Recently, Cardano users encountered advanced phishing attacks targeting the Eternl Desktop wallet. Attackers used forged official emails to lure users into downloading malicious packages, enabling remote command execution. Such security incidents highlight vulnerabilities in ecosystem wallet applications and could negatively impact user confidence in the short term.

Another pressure point comes from historical performance. In 2025, ADA declined by 60%, from a high of $1.3 to $0.35, reflecting a market reassessment of its fundamentals. Although the ecosystem is improving, the number of on-chain applications and user base still lag significantly behind competitors like Ethereum.

Future Focus

From the current market environment, whether ADA’s rebound can sustain depends on several key factors: whether ecosystem collaborations truly materialize, whether Leios scaling progresses as scheduled, and whether wallet security issues are effectively addressed. Additionally, the overall risk appetite in the crypto market will directly influence ADA’s performance.

According to AI predictions from recent reports, in 2026 ADA may face three scenarios: a continuation of the bear market possibly pulling it back to $0.10–$0.15; a baseline scenario with oscillation between $0.30–$0.80; or, in a bullish scenario if the ecosystem shows real progress, a surge to $2–$3.

Summary

The core drivers of this ADA rebound are ecosystem expectations, on-chain capital, and technical resonance, rather than purely technical correction. The anticipated collaboration between Midnight and XRP Ledger, progress in Leios scaling, and completed on-chain governance all add long-term growth potential. However, wallet security risks, past price declines, and the actual progress of the ecosystem still require time to verify. For holders, this is a critical period to observe the ecosystem’s genuine development.