#美联储降息 Seeing this news, it reminded me of the recent discussions many friends have been having about interest rate cuts. The statement from the new Federal Reserve voting member is quite interesting — she advocates at least freezing rates until spring, citing that inflation remains a concern. This made me think of a common misconception.

Many people get excited when they see "possible rate freeze," thinking it's a positive signal. But if you think carefully, the underlying logic is actually a reminder: inflation hasn't truly subsided yet. The key phrase is "assessment in spring" — which means uncertainty will likely persist for a few more months.

After experiencing several market cycles, I’ve learned a lesson: signals of policy shifts often imply risks. When central bank officials say "let’s wait and see," it usually means the market is still digesting various variables. At this point, the most important thing isn’t to bet on policy direction, but to review whether your asset allocation is reasonable.

My habit is: during such uncertain times, emphasize position discipline. Avoid leverage, control concentration, and keep cash buffers — these seemingly "boring" practices often help you stay steady amid volatility. In the long run, a safe allocation beats precise predictions.