Bitcoin approaches $95,000: Bulls are dominant but trading volume is lacking, a "double confirmation" is needed for a breakout

2026-01-06 03:02:27

Bitcoin started 2026 with a strong momentum, rising from $87,600 at the beginning of the year to above $94,000, nearly an 8% increase, hitting a six-week high. However, behind this rally lies an interesting contradiction: prices are rising, but leverage funding has not kept pace. Derivatives and on-chain data indicate that the current market is still in a “confirmation phase,” with traders adopting a cautiously optimistic rather than fully bullish stance.

Prices Rising, Why Is Leverage Funding Missing?

Let’s quickly compare some key data points:

Indicator	Current Status	Explanation
Price	Above $94,000	Nearly 8% increase year-to-date
Perpetual Contract Open Interest	$31.4 billion	Significantly lower than previous highs
Capital Flows	New spot + short covering	Leverage funding has not seen large-scale inflows
Options Skew	Decreasing put options skew	Market is beginning to position for bullish options

What does this imply? The current upward movement is mainly driven by increased spot demand and short covering, rather than large-scale leverage funding. In other words, market sentiment is improving, but participation remains relatively shallow.

What Is Needed to Break Through $95,000?

According to the latest information, to effectively break through $95,000 and open up more upside space, two key confirmations are required:

Volume Expansion

Current sell pressure at key levels still dominates, meaning each rally encounters selling. Only if trading volume increases can we confirm this is not a false breakout.

Derivatives Position Growth

Perpetual contract open interest needs to expand in tandem. The current $31.4 billion scale is still insufficient, indicating large funds are still on the sidelines. However, the options market is sending positive signals, with a noticeable decline in short-term put skew, and some funds are beginning to position for medium- to long-term bullish options.

The True Power Supporting This Rally

Institutional ETF funds continue steady inflows, providing important support for prices
Seasonal liquidity improves, with relatively loose funding conditions since January
Risk asset appetite is rebounding, and overall market sentiment in crypto is warming
Although US investors remain cautious on spot purchases, the options market’s outlook is improving

Short-term Risks and Support Levels

If a correction occurs, $92,000 and $90,000 are two critical support levels. Should ETF inflows slow or macro conditions turn tighter, a phase correction cannot be ruled out.

Based on the latest data, Bitcoin is currently around $93,547, with a 24-hour increase of 0.57% and a 7-day gain of 7.54%. Market sentiment is indeed improving.

Summary

Bitcoin’s upward trend has not been broken, but whether a new strong bull cycle begins depends on further validation in three areas: whether trading volume expands in sync, whether derivatives positions grow, and whether spot demand remains sustained. Currently, prices are rising, but “confirmation signals” are still insufficient. $95,000 is not just a price level but a psychological threshold that needs to be validated through volume and position data. In the short term, watch whether the $92,000 support holds firmly, as this will directly influence the possibility of subsequent breakthroughs.

BTC0,54%

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