#美联储降息 This week's market rhythm is quite interesting. The Federal Reserve Chair nomination has a subtle market reaction—before Trump officially announced it, various funds started to position themselves in advance. Hasset's probability lead has risen to 54%, but just like stock picking, these things often reverse at the last moment.

The key is still Tuesday's GDP data. The third quarter actual GDP, consumer data, and core PCE—these three indicators can directly reflect the true state of the economy since the rate cut. If the data exceeds expectations, depreciation expectations might heat up, and the story of liquidity will need to be rewritten; if it falls short, the market may bet on a more aggressive rate cut path.

I'm talking to several traders with different styles—some are aggressive high-frequency traders with large position changes, and others are steady low-frequency allocators. This week, I plan to adjust the position allocation strategy—reduce the orders for aggressive traders, after all, Christmas market liquidity is poor, and volatility is unpredictable. Conversely, those who can withstand shocks—steady traders—this high-uncertainty period is exactly their stage to perform.

The moment expectations of rate cuts change is often when the most stop-loss cases occur. There have been traders who didn't cut losses in time when policy expectations reversed, ending up stuck in a position for a week. Practice makes perfect; always having a Plan B is never wrong.