#预测市场 Recently saw Vitalik's discussion on prediction markets, very interesting—he calls prediction markets the "antidote" to social media, and the logic is really about the binding power of real money.

This made me think that the essence of copy trading is the same. Traders on social media hype wildly, but what truly reflects their strength are position records, stop-loss executions, and risk management—all of which have economic costs. The cost of lying is too high.

On Polymarket, the probability of BTC breaking 100,000 this year is only 10%, and 95,000 is just 32%, yet the crypto community's sentiment has been crazy over the past two weeks. This contrast really says a lot. I’ve also fallen into this trap before—chasing high with the crowd, always thinking "it will definitely go up," but when it comes to betting with my own money, my mindset completely changes.

Choosing who to copy trade also follows this logic—look at accounts, not words; look at review sessions, not predictions. Traders who can strictly cut losses during declines and rationally allocate during rebounds are the ones worth following. Prediction markets and copy trading both use real economic penalties to filter signals. This is the right direction.