#美联储政策与货币政策 Seeing the recent surge in precious metals, with gold breaking through $4380 to hit a new all-time high, I actually feel more cautious. I've seen this scene too many times—when safe-haven funds start pouring into traditional assets wildly, it often signals collective anxiety about the future.

Expectations of Fed rate cuts heating up, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical tensions—these factors indeed cause funds to flee risk assets. But the key question is: after these funds exit, where will they ultimately flow? History shows that when risk-free returns decline sharply, institutions and smart money tend to act in two waves—the first wave buying precious metals for self-rescue, and the second wave seeking high-elasticity assets.

So don’t be scared by short-term capital outflows. Coinbase’s Bitcoin negative premium has persisted for 8 days. Although it looks pessimistic, it has been narrowing in recent days, which precisely indicates that the bottom-fishing force is gradually accumulating. Analysts who say "the 2026 market will be too chaotic and unpredictable" are actually telling us—now is not the time to buy at high levels, but the time to build foundational understanding.

The real risk is not in the macro cycle, but in whether you are still chasing projects without fundamental backing. When the rate cut cycle arrives, junk coins die the fastest. Proper risk management and understanding the true lifecycle of projects are a thousand times more important than predicting price movements.