Year-to-date Effect Initiated: BTC Approaching $100,000, Driven by Both Institutional and ETF Funds

The cryptocurrency market has shown a clear signs of recovery at the start of 2026. Bitcoin’s price remains stable above $93,700, Ethereum breaks through $3,200, XRP hits a recent new high, and the total market capitalization surpasses the $3 trillion mark. This is not just a sentiment-driven rebound, but a phased correction driven by the resonance of liquidity, institutional allocations, and macro expectations.

Overall Market Outlook: From Bottom Recovery to Capital Reflow

Today’s data performance in the crypto market is quite impressive. Total market cap exceeds $3 trillion, 24-hour trading volume rises to approximately $123.7 billion, with a single-day increase of over 30%. More importantly, in the first few days of 2026, the crypto market cap has increased by about $260 billion, signaling a positive combination of the “early-year effect” and capital reflow.

Mainstream Coins’ Differentiated Performance

BTC, ETH, and XRP, the three major mainstream assets, each exhibit unique characteristics, reflecting the current market’s structural features.

Bitcoin: Building Momentum to Break $100,000

Bitcoin’s price today remains above $93,700, with an intraday increase of about 1.5%, and a nearly 7% gain over the past week. The market generally views this range as a key buildup phase before challenging the $100,000 mark. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, and institutional players like MicroStrategy are increasing their holdings. These two forces jointly support BTC’s stable upward trend. According to the latest news, MicroStrategy just added 1,287 BTC for $116.3 million, bringing its total holdings to 673,783 BTC, a clear sign of ongoing institutional buying.

Ethereum: Supported by Enterprise-Level Buying

ETH is currently priced around $3,219, up about 2% for the day. Over the past week and month, ETH has increased approximately 8% and 6%, respectively. The 24-hour trading volume exceeds $25 billion, with significant trading activity. Institutional capital allocation and enterprise-level buying are seen as key supports for Ethereum’s strong price performance. Compared to BTC’s steady rise, ETH demonstrates more robust trading volume characteristics.

XRP: Short-Term Bright Spot

XRP has become the most impressive among mainstream tokens in the short term. Currently priced around $2.33, it has risen about 10% in the past 24 hours, with a weekly increase of over 27%. Behind this strong performance, continuous inflows of ETF-related funds provide clear marginal growth expectations. Some market analysts, considering historical cycles, believe XRP has further upside potential in the medium term.

Driving Forces Analysis: Resonance of Liquidity and Macro Expectations

The market’s recovery is not without source. At least three forces are driving this rebound:

• Continued Strong Institutional Buying: MicroStrategy’s increased holdings, US banks including BTC ETFs in wealth management, and recommending clients allocate 1%-4% of their assets to crypto all indicate rising institutional recognition.
• Steady ETF Capital Flows: Last week, Bitcoin spot ETF saw inflows of about $459 million, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $57 billion; Ethereum ETF inflows last week reached $161 million; XRP ETF has accumulated inflows of about $43 million. These passive capital allocations provide stable buying support.
• Improved Macro Expectations: Upcoming US employment data and changing interest rate expectations are improving market sentiment towards risk assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical events and energy market uncertainties reinforce the safe-haven and allocation attributes of digital assets like Bitcoin.

Market Sentiment Shift

From investor behavior, risk appetite is clearly rebounding. This is reflected not only in rising prices but also in increased trading volumes and greater institutional participation. Rotations among veteran meme coins and altcoins continue, often indicating a shift in market sentiment from extreme pessimism to neutrality or mild optimism.

In my view, the current rebound is not purely sentiment-driven but built on genuine improvements in liquidity and institutional demand. This suggests the rebound could have more sustainability.

Future Outlook: Prelude to a New Bull Market

According to multiple analysts, this may be an important transitional phase before a new market rally begins. While a full bull market still needs further confirmation, several signals are worth noting:

• Breaking the $100,000 resistance for BTC will be a key milestone to validate market confidence.
• ETF capital flows will continue to dominate short-term trends.
• Upcoming macroeconomic data releases in the US could serve as triggers.
• If institutional accumulation maintains its pace, it will provide ongoing support for the market.

Summary

The crypto market at the start of 2026 is significantly stronger than in recent months. This rebound features a combined effect of liquidity, institutional allocations, and macro expectations, rather than just sentiment. BTC approaching $100,000, ETH maintaining strength, and XRP leading short-term gains reflect a shift from bottom recovery to broader capital participation. While a complete bull market still requires time to confirm, the current market structure and capital signals are already quite positive, warranting continued attention to key technical levels and macroeconomic data releases.